Euroleague Betting Tips

Euroleague Logo Each week since 2006 I offer full Euroleague coverage for bettors, who always returns here to read my analysis. I hope you will like them too. Below you can find our tips, but some of them might be available only for paid subscribers.

My betting system is based on value and you’ll not find here bets for fun. I use my own database to calculate totals and get advantage over the bookies there. Handicap system is also ready now and will be used when season will heat up (at least 3-4 games needed to get first system bets).

Below you can see my latest Euroleague tips and weekly previews. I recommend you to read weekly preview room, which is going to be updated on a gameday around 14:00 CET. I can’t do it earlier, because of my obligations in paid subscription.

Weekly previews

Enjoy reading our full coverage of Euroleague by reading live betting tips and latest injuries in our weekly previews below:

Last betting picks

Barcelona – Valencia

Pick

Under 157.5 @ 1.95 5/10

BC Valencia
CSKA Moscow

CSKA – Fenerbahce

paid subscription

BC Khimki

Khimki – Maccabi

Pick: 

Maccabi +6.5 @ 1.95 5/10 WON

Both will look to bounce back after poor Tuesday perfomance. Maccabi has covered the spread both times on the road against bottom teams (88:71 against Brose and 84:87 against Zvezda) and now visits Khimki, which has 4-0 home record, but failed to cover the spread (0-4 ATS home). Khimki right now is perfect example of weak home favorite and I see good chances for both streaks to continue.Many bettors and experts will like Khimki spread. But I see it as bookie trap, because they want to see public money on home side. Therefore, I prefer to go with system bet against weak favorite again, because Maccabi has healthy rotation and well-implemented playing system (can’t say this about Russian team).

BC Zalgiris

Zalgiris – Baskonia

Pick:

Under 158.5 @ 1.94 7/10 LOST

Fenerbahce – Olympiacos

Pick

Under 145 @ 1.92 Lost

Olympiacos
 Unicaja

Unicaja Malaga – Zalgiris

Pick:

Zalgiris +2,5 @ 1.92 5/10 WON

 BC Zalgiris
 Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos – Khimki

Pick:

Pick: Over 157 @ 1.93 7/10 WON 

 BC Khimki

Maccabi – Anadolu Efes

Pick:

Under 164 @ 1.92 VOID

 

Baskonia – Real Madrid

Picks

Real Madrid (-3) @ 1.92 7/10  LOST
Under 167.5 @ 1.92 5/10  LOST

 

Brose – Fenerbahce

Pick:

Under 152,5 @ 1.95 WON

Ali Muhammed is back for Fenerbahce. Good news for Obradovic, because he needs PG that can help Sloukas do distribute the ball in offense. Fenerbahce has failed to cover the spread in all 3 road games, but they played good and wasted lead in each of the games. Now they travel to Bamberg and I see them clear favs there, despite their 1-2 away record. They are different class team and must prove it in Germany, where Turkish clubs often gets additional support from the stands in Germany. Sometimes, it is hard to understand who plays at home.As for the total I see good chances for under here, иut a lower stake should be used because of insufficient value over the line. Fenerbahce is slowest Euroleague team (just 129 attacks on the road) and meets Brose that is playing slow-medium pace (140-145 attacks per game). Fenerbahce defensive pressure should hold Brose around 70 points, Fenerbahce expected range around 74-80 points.Home avg. scoring: 1.05-1.15 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.05-1.19 pts/attack
Expected pace: 134 attacks
Expected total range: 141-157 pointsTrends:Brose 2-0 for Under at home
Fenerbahce 2-1 for under on the road
BC Khimki

Khimki – Baskonia

Pick: 

Under 159,5 @ 1.92 7/10 LOST

Pinnacle

Baskonia traveled to Russia twithout Jordan McRae, who remained in Vitoria despite training with a group this week. Basques got their first win by coast-to-coast buzzer beater, but they still need time to find their game and inner balance. At the moment only 3 players (Beaubois, Shengelia and Granger) score points and playing well. And Martinez task is to involve Timma, Janning, Diop and Voigtmann into offensive schemes. I think that major problem for the team – questionable signings this summer. Garino, Huertas, Janning looks very bad so far and McRae trying to get his form back and can’t do it at least for now.Khimki is much healthier team, but bookies and public gives too much respect to them. Because actually they are deep and balanced team of players, but they have too many average players to become a real power in Europe. Of course, Shved and Robinson has great numbers in offense.. But every coach knows that Shved is weak defender and can shoot 4/15 at any given moment and Robinson is just a good rebounder with bad shooting skills. Such small things makes difference, especially in situations when everybody expect Khimki to cover spreads. They are 1-4 against the spread this season and has covered as underdogs in Madrid. However, at home they were just 1, 2 and 3,5 points below handicap line and won all games.Baskonia has enough talent inside and at its best form can win. But they are very far away from that conditions. Will they be able to fight for handicap? I think, yes. They are improving, hungry for points and Khimki are 0-3 ATS at home. But I feel that is a kind of bookies trap. They want to see some action on Baskonia spread, because Khimki might kill them at home court with their defense and offense. So I decided to skip handicap and choose total here.Another bet we need to consider here – under 159,5. Below you can see team stats, that explain why it’s good position. Baskonia has very slow pace in Euroleague. And after Martinez arrival they did 141 attacks against PAO and 132 attack in Malaga. Khimki had several slow paced games (under 145 attacks) in VTB league and against CZ in Euroleague. Seems they are absolutely ok to play possesioned minded basketball, if opponent want this.Home avg. scoring: 1.01-1.09 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.05-1.12 pts/attack
Expected pace: 142 attacks
Expected total range: 146-157 pointsTrend:Baskonia 3-0 for Under on the road

Barcelona – Anadolu Efes

Pick: 

Under 161,5 @ 1.92 5/10 LOST

FC Barcelona will try to recover their 2-3 record against Efes, which is at the bottom of the table with 0 wins. Barcelona showed great defense against Olympiacos last week (73:51) and before they had good second half against Panathinaikos (98:71). There was one defensive fail against Zalgiris (75:81), but bad things happen.. I think that catalans starting to show signs of life in defense, but offensively they are not looking well enough on Euroleague level.Efes defense was destroyed by top offensive teams like CSKA (80:98) and Real Madrid (74:88), but in other games they were able to hold Valencia, Fenerbahce and Unicaja under 81 points. This Efes is playing in medium pace (141-146 attack per game), but it tends to increase average pace of opponent a little bit. Barcelona is an uptempo team (152 attacks per game), that likes to run fast offense. I expect about 152 to be done here, but there is good chance that one of the teams will collapse offensively.According to my stats Barcelona should score 75-87 points and Efes 68-74 points. Also both teams has Under trends (Barca 2-1 at home and Efes 2-0 on the road).

Maccabi – Real Madrid

Pick:

under 165 @ 1.91 7/10 LOST

Olimpia Milano – Zalgiris

Pick:

Zalgiris +4.5 @ 1.5 5/10 WON

BC Zalgiris
CSKA Moscow

СSKA – Valencia

Picks:

Valencia +10.5 @ 1.95 7/10 LOST
 Under 162 @ 1.98 5/10 WON

BC Valencia
CSKA Moscow

CSKA – Zalgiris

Pick:

Zalgiris +14.5 @ 1.92 

Pinnacle

WON

BC Zalgiris
One of the classic European duels in basketball will be played in Moscow this evening. Leo Westermann is out for CSKA, but when you have S.Rodriguez and N.De Colo this is not a big problem. Zalgiris also touched by the injuries. Dee Bost still can’t debut in Euroleague and stayed in Kaunas and Ulanovas (important rotation player) is game time decision.No doubts that CSKA has more quality within their roster, but this season they are not that good to get such big handicaps against most of the teams in Euroleague. Zalgiris won in Barcelona, hold handicap against Khimki and started with 2-0 against the spread on the road. They are 15-2 ATS in road games in last 2 seasons and I don’t see any reason, why we should stop riding this trend at the moment.CSKA allowed opponents to score 80+ points in 3 of 4 games this season. Lithuanian team has good scoring ability to finish around 75 points. But my stats say that Zalgiris defense is good enough to hold CSKA offense under 90 points. A.Toupane will be used to defend against NT teammate De Colo, Micic should defend against Rodriguez and under the rims Jasikevicius has enough soldiers to fight for rebounds.And of course, this is a special game for Zalgiris. They just can’t stop fighting in game like this. Especially after bad game vs. Real Madrid. Lithuanian players know how important this game for fans and Jasikevicius will find right words to motivate foreigners..

Efes – Unicaja

Pick:

Unicaja +4.5 @ 1.92 

Pinnacle

Unicaja
Unicaja has well established system from last season, when they won Eurocup. J.Plaza told the press about his vision of the game this season.”With the selection of pivots we have, we want to take advantage of our inner game. It depends on the defense also if you manage to do it . With Augustine, Dejan or Shermadini we sometimes have 2×1 with the low post. We want to achieve that balance between 60% shots of two and 40% shots of three, we want that ideal. Hopefully we are getting closer. There are automatisms that are assimilating, we want to take out the pivots of more game, of the big ones “.Efes started Euroleague with 4 losses, but 3 of them were against big teams. This game is the first, where Efes goes as favorite, but with 1-3 ATS record (and 0-2 at home) my system indicated them as weak favorite. They had too much changes in offseason and yet to find team game to start winning in Euroleague. Unicaja knows the way to the victories, now when Nedovic and Augustine are back to the roster we can expect another upset for Efes.
 

Maccabi – Milan

Picks:
Milan +5 @ 1.92 LOST
Under 162 @ 1.91  WON
 
Maccabi failed to cover spread in both home games this season. Italians played two solid games in Moscow and Madrid and will play against their size opponent. I think it’s good chance for them to fight for the points. A.Goudelock should be back after missing two games (officialy he is game decision).Also Maccabi is 2-0 for Under in home games and play slow pace. Milan normally should accept that pace and I see some value in under here. Value is not big enough to take it with full stakes, but it’s ok for system bet.

Baskonia – Panathinaikos

Pick

Baskonia +1 @ 1.92

Pinnacle

WON

After Pablo Prigioni stepped down as head coach, the club announced that Pedro Martinez will lead team until the end of the season. Martinez arrives from Valencia Basket, which with he won the Spanish League last season. With him on the bench they lost at home to Zaragoza, but it’s impossible to change things in 2 or 3 days. Bad form is main reason, why we see Baskonia as home underdog against Panathinaikos. And this is statisticaly is very good situation for Baskonia, because they are 7-1 ATS in last season as home underdog.Panathinaikos started with 2 ATS losses and it indicates that they are weak away favorite. I go with Baskonia +1 as system selection, because I did not like they way how PAO playing at the start of the season and Baskonia has enough talent to explode and get first home win in Euroleague.

Fenerbahce – Valencia

Picks

Valencia +6.5 @ 1.93 LOST
Under 152 @ 1.92  WON

Pinnacle

BC Valencia

San Emeterio is fit to play tonight and Valencia will try to continue their 3-1 ATS record in Istanbul. Fenerbahce so far has difficulties with spreads (1-3 ATS) and we should continue going against them, while they are struggling to show basketball from last season. Valencia has well established playing system, all players know their roles and now, when their bench looks healthy again I expect them to give a fight to Euroleague champs.

I also like under here, but with lower stakes. Game pace should be very slow (about 130 attacks). In Euroleague Fenerbahce so far had 1.06, 1.05, 1.28 and 1.03 pts/attack, and Valencia had 0.99, 1.06, 1.10 and 1.13. There is a risk of high percentage game (both teams has great offensive potential), but we have supporting trend here, because Valencia is 2-0 for Under on the road this season.

Brose – Baskonia

Pick

Under 157,5 @ 1.92

Pinnacle

WON

Baskonia started the season with 2 unders in away games. There was a reason for that. They played very slow in both games. 135 attacks were done against Olympiacos and 122 against Maccabi. Brose like to play possesion minded basketball (139, 143 and 141 attacks this season in Euroleague), but their games often has high efficiency due the bad defense and ability to score points.
I go with system selection due the Baskonia under trend & low pace in Euroleague and opponent game style, which normally suits Under bet. Also we should remember how important is this game for basques after loss and coach resign.

Baskonia – Valencia

Pick

Baskonia (-3,5) @ 1.92

Pinnacle

LOST

BC Valencia
   
Valencia has long list of injured players. San Emeterio, Diot, Williams and Sastre can’t play. Coach already requested to sign PF position.Baskonia struggles to show high level basketball at the start of the season in both competitions. New not-experienced coach, many new players, injuries. difficult schedule – all was against them. At least P.Garino has recovered and might play against valencians.The game is very important for Baskonia and they should take it at all costs to avoid 0-3 start before difficult travel to Khimki and hosting Real Madrid. They have wide 11-man roster for this game, while Valencia has just 7 players from their main rotation. Very good chances to take first win and at home this goal is more than achievable.

Regal Barcelona – Zalgiris

Pick

Zalgiris +9.5 @ 1.92 5/10

Pinnacle

Result: 75-81

WON

BC Zalgiris
Zalgiris is very good away favorite. They finihed last season with 13-2 ATS record in away games and they took spread against Khimki last week in first road game this season. One more thing to note is that Zalgiris lost by 8 points with just 3-of-19 shots from 3-points line and 21/46 from mid-range. Zalgiris is capable of doing better with these guys. 
 
Barce currently has problems with skilled teams. They got easy win over Burgas and Obradoiro, but lost against Crvena Zvezda, won by 2 points against Joventud and by 5 points against Baskonia. 
 
Also this is a special game for Jasikevicius. Barca wanted to hire him this summer, but he said no, because they decided not to give him full control over the team. It’s time to prove his coaching skills and take another road handicap on the road in Euroleague. 
BC Khimki

Khimki – Crvena Zvezda

PICK

Crvena Zvezda (+12) @ 1.95 5/10 

Pinnacle

Result: 85- 78

WON

Crvena Zvezda

Khimki are 0-2 against the spread in home matches. They are getting too much respect from players and bookies due their solid roster. But we should not forget that this a team with 8 new players and coach. They need time to click and find the balance. And it’s hard to build team, when you are playing against weak opponents in VTB League like Parma or Riga. 
 
Crvena Zvezda showing solid basketball at the moment. They are not pushovers, they have deep rotation and enough quality players, who is doing well on this level. They don’t have true stars, but at the moment Rochestie playing like in his best days. And when he is hot his teams always were dangerous.
 
This is a pick against weak favorite. Part of the system, which we are going to run this season. I will use 5/10 stakes for such bets. Sometimes there will be looking strange, but believe me in the long term they should help us to earn more. 

 

Olympiacos

Olympiacos – Unicaja

PICK

Unicaja (+6.5) @ 1.96 5/10 

Pinnacle

Result: 80- 75

WON

Unicaja
Olympiacos experience huge problems with injuries. Kim Tillie is out for several months, Vassilis Spanoulis and Strelnieks seems to be out too. Mantzaris and Papanikolao did part of training but still questionable. Brian Roberts played his first official game last weekend.Jeff Brooks power forward was hit by stomach virus and stayed in Malaga to try to recover in time for weekend game against Real Madrid. Plaza took his other 13 players ready for the “battle”. It looks like Augustine will be the one who helps Carlos Suarez in the position of “4”. Shermadini and Musli will exercise of «centers».Unicaja tends to play slow basketball, if opponents forcing it with hard defense and long possessions in offense. Olympiacos is exactly the same team and no suprise that we have just 143 points line. At the moment there is not enough data to decide if it worth to take something.I see quite close game, because Unicaja has well implemented system and Olympiacos system is weakened by key player absences. I feel that Unicaja is capable of providing a suprise here and take points in Greece.
Crvena Zvezda

Crvena Zvezda – Barcelona

PICK

Over 156,5  @ 1.96

Pinnacle

Result: 90-82

WON

Barca travels to Belgrade without injured Rakim Sanders and Victor Claver. But that’s are the only missings and their deep bench is able to compensate them. Under new coach Barcelona since the official start of the season played 4 games and all of them were high paced with 150+ attacks. Seems that Sito Alonso trying to adapt fast basketball he used in Baskonia.Crvena Zvezda has defensive problems this year. Because Antic, Feldeine and Rochestie never were good defensive specialists. Looking back to their games in Adriatic league their average game quality is about 1,04 pts/attack.I expect to see around 153 attacks here and with normal percentages that should be enough for 158+ points to be scored.

Real Madrid – CSKA

PICK

Real (-2,5) @ 1.96 8/10 

Pinnacle

Result: 78-69

WON 

CSKA Moscow
Real started with good ATS road win over Efes and continued their winning run in Valencia (86:82). Now they welcomes CSKA at home, who destroyed them in their last meeting in Final-4 (70:94). Madrid has the core from last season and I see a progress there due L.Doncic factor, who is becoming a real power in Europe (27 points against Efes).CSKA started with home ATS loss to Milan. They were 16 points down in first half (16-32), but then turned the thing and won in the end 93:84. I am sure that Milan was able to win that game, if they would be mentally ready to make it.I think that key point here is mental aproach. Westermann, Clyburn (newcomers) don’t have that big club mentality and they are not used to play for a win on such courts as in Madrid.Rodriguez and Hunter are well known to Real, because they were playing here. It is a big question how they will respond today.Real should dominate under the boards with their size under the boards. For me they are absolutely the same level team as CSKA and this moment in great form. They have more energy within their huge roster, huge crowd support and I really surprised to see such high odds on them.
 BC Valencia BC Khimki

Double bet

PICK

Zalgiris + Khimki @ 1.97 7/10

Pinnacle

WON

 BC Zalgiris

Crvena Zvezda

Zalgiris – Crvena ZvezdaLithuanian was not able to hold B.Motum (Efes) and Westermann (CSKA) for another year, but more important loss is point guard Lekavicius (Panathinaikos). Jasikevicius expected him to play for one more year, but PAO did incredible personal offer and Saras let him go. Micic was signed to replace him. The goods news is that coach stayed for another season and declined offers from big clubs like Barcelona. Jasikevicius feels that he can achieve playoffs with this team and this is goal for the season in Euroleague. Team management signed those players, who coach has asked. Davies, White, Bost, Toupane, Micic were invited by head coach, because he wanted to see athletic defensive minded players. Defense, team work and concentration on details – this is philosophy of Sarunas Jasikevicius. But new players still need few week to understand the system and their roles. Also Jankunas (team captain and key player) is bad form after resting this summer.Crvena Zvezda ruined everything they did in last few seasons. Almost new roster, very questionable signings like Keselj, Jankovic, Davidovac, Antic and Feldeine. Rochestie and Bjelica bring Euroleague experience to this team, but that’s not enough, because this league demands much more depth and quality, especially on the bench. As for me only PG position is ok for EL standarts, where talented Radicevic might be used together with T.Rochestie. 31-year-old Dusan Alimpijevic is the youngest coach in Euroleague and he doesn’t have any experience on such level. This is another weak point of CZ.Zalgiris is like Crvena Zvezda last season. This the third season under the same coach. They have the core and system from last season. Great home crowd support and good roster. Dee Bost who is questionable (ankle), but Pangos and Micic will cover PG position. I expect Zalgiris to start with a victory tonight, but I am not sure about -6.5 handicap, because lithuanian teams is not yet playing balanced game.Khimki – ValenciaRussian team completed very good transfer campaign this summer. A.Gill (Turkey) and T.Robinson (NBA, Lakers) is the real power under the rims, Honeycutt returned to the team after good season in Efes, C.Jenkins came from Crvena Zvezda and James Anderson from Darussafaka. Stefan Markovic (Zenit) is experienced playmaker and they also have A.Shved – probably best shooting guard in Euroleague at the moment. The team had good preparation, where only Shved has been missing (played at Eurobasket) and T.Robinson (personal matters). Anyway now team is full and in great shape. They won against CSKA in Moscow and bring Gomelsky Cup to the town.Valencia debuts in Euroleague after winning Endesa League. They are missing 3 important players (San Emeterio, Diot and L.Williams). Of course, they have enought depth to step into this game with 8-9 players who can compete on this level. But as for me Vives, Doornekamp and Van Rosson not yet ready for Euroleague battles. Also I am not sure about E.Green, J.Sastre and W.Thomas level to play important roles. They have new coach (T.Vidorreta) and had long travel to Russia, where they had never won in their history.I see Khimki as better team and see them clear favorite in tonight game.