Each week since 2006 I offer full Euroleague coverage for bettors, who always returns here to read my analysis. I hope you will like them too. Below you can find our tips, but some of them might be available only for paid subscribers.
My betting system is based on value and you’ll not find here bets for fun. I use my own database to calculate totals and get advantage over the bookies there. Handicap system is also ready now and will be used when season will heat up (at least 3-4 games needed to get first system bets).
Below you can see my latest Euroleague tips and weekly previews. I recommend you to read weekly preview room, which is going to be updated on a gameday around 14:00 CET. I can’t do it earlier, because of my obligations in paid subscription.
Last betting picks
||Zalgiris + Khimki
||Fenerbahce – Olympiacos
The teams split home wins during the regular season, but will play deciding match tonight at 20:00 at packed “Fenerbahce” arena. Both times it was slow (136 and 133 attacks) and defensive minded (67:64 and 62:71) basketball. But in Greece, where Oly won 71:62 turks were without their leader B.Bogdanovic. In home game he played and scored 27 points. Stopping All-EuroLeague center Ekpe Udoh is a priority for Olympiacos. Udoh leads the Euroleague in rebounds (7.7 rpg.) and blocks (2.1 bpg.), but Olympiacos has enough manpower in the paint with Nikola Milutinov, Patric Young and Khem Birch to slow him down. Fenerbahce must find a way to stop Vassilis Spanoulis, whose fourth-quarter heroics allowed Olympiacos to get past CSKA Moscow in the semifinals. His matchup against Bogdan Bogdanovic will be critical in this game.
I liked the energy level of Fenerbahce, they had demonstrated against Real Madrid in semifinal. All players are determined, great support from the stands and some help from referees should be expected too. Olympiacos doesn’t have so much quality within their roster. Spanoulis is great player, but he is far from being a top player like Bogdanovic. Datome, Udoh, Sloukas, Vesely for me are better than Printezis, Green, Birch, Papanikolao. On the bench also small advantage for the hosts. The only question is mentality, but Z.Obradovic experience should help.
||CSKA – Olympiacos
This is the fourth time these two powerhouses meet at the Final Four in the past six years and Olympiacos won each of the first three, including a dramatic 61-62 decision in the 2012 championship game in this very same Sinan Erdem Dome.
D.Kulagin will miss Final Four due the injury for CSKA. Milos Teodosic hasn’t played since April, 25 due the problems with old injury. Teodosic expected to play, but he returned to the group just this this week and might be out of form.Matt Lojeski still can’t play for Olympiacos, but greek team is already addopted to play without him.Stats
- CSKA avg. pace: 150 attacks
- CSKA avg. scoring: 1,02-1,10 pts/attack
- Olympiacos average pace: 141 attacks
- Olympiacos avg. scoring: 1.02-1,14 pts/attack
- Expected pace: 146 attacks
- Expected total range: 149-165 points
- CSKA 9-2 for UNDER in last 11 road games
- Olympiacos is 8-3 for UNDER in last 11 road games
I can’t agree with the fact, that CSKA gets 6 points handicap here. Olympiacos is uncomfortable opponent for them and this season already proved, that they can fight with CSKA. We should take regular season games too closely, because in Greece Olympiacos played really bad first half and was out of shape at that moment. In Moscow both teams played with desire to hide defensive and offensive schemes.The key moment for my bet here is CSKA problems this season in away games against defensive minded game and close ends. Actually CSKA is only 3-10 ATS in last 13 away games, while Olympiacos is 10-4 ATS on the road in last 14 games. I think that this trend tells everything about this game. Defensive skills of Olympiacos should create a lot of problems to Itoudis and his guys. I see this match as very close one with both teams able to win it.Regarding, the total trends points to UNDER 157, but there is no mathematical value to take it as a pre-match bet.Pick: Olympiacos +6,5 @ 1.92 5/10
P.S. If you took Olympiacos to win Euroleague @ 20 as I’ve adviced – keep with that bet.
|| Fenerbahce – Real Madrid
|| Under 157
Real Madrid arrives with a EuroLeague best 26-8 record, having scored the second-most points (86 ppg.) and led the league in assists (20.5 apg.), three-pointers made (9.8 per game) and performance index rating (101.6), but faces a team playing under the winningest head coach in EuroLeague history. The two teams split the season series, with Fenerbahce edging Madrid 78-77 at home in Round 10 and Madrid rallying to a 61-56 win in Round 29. That loss was Fenerbhace’s fourth loss in five games late in the regular season, but Coach Zeljko Obradovic, winner of eight EuroLeague titles and in his 16th Final Four as a head coach, had his team playing the best basketball of the season when needed most – in the playoffs.StatsFenerbahce avg. pace: 141 attacks
Fenerbahce avg. scoring: 1,01-1,11 pts/attack
Real Madrid avg. pace: 143 attacks
Real Madrid avg. scoring: 1.09-1,16 pts/attack
Expected pace: 139 attacks
Expected total range: 146-157 pointsI don’t want to gamble trying to predict the winner here, but I am forced to do this:)Fenerbahce is home favorite and bookies give them -3.5 handicap due that. But Real is very experienced team and can win anywhere in Europe. A lot will depend on small details and teams form right today. Fenerbahce got its best form, when it was neeeded and it’s third season for Zeljko Obradovic here and usualy team get to its peak at 3rd year under one coach and core of players.Both games in regular season were played in slow-medium pace (146 attacks in Turkey were done, 131 – in Madrid). I expect same average to slow pace today, but teams offensive quality is so good that they can score 150+ points even playing at slow pace. Trends are opposite. Fenerbahce has clear under trend (7-1 for Under in last 8 home games), Real goes 4-1 for OVER in last 5 games, but 10-7 for UNDER on the road in overall.I expect defensive minded game here and 157 line looks at least 3-4 points higher, than it should be.