Paid picks & previews for January 20th

Euroleague Logo 2017CSKA – Brose Baskets

Home avg. pace: 152 attacks (+)
Home avg. scoring: 1.11-1,13 pts/attack

Away average pace: 142 attacks (-)
Away avg. scoring: 1.06 pts/attack

Expected pace: 147-149 attacks

Nothing interesting here. CSKA are clear favorites, but Brose is difficult opponent, who is playing great basketball, which is based on A.Trinichieri system. Another reason to skip it – Brose motivation. On Sunday they play Cup quarterfinal and that game has huge importance for them.

165+ total looks fine for average paced game. CSKA should score 87-93 and Brose up to 78, but not more.

Prediction: CSKA 91 – 76 Brose

Fenerbahce – Panathinaikos
My line: (-6/147)

Home avg. pace: 142 attacks (-)
Home avg. scoring: 1,07 pts/attack

Away average pace: 143 attacks (-)
Away avg. scoring: 1.06 pts/attack

Expected pace: 138 attacks (or less)

Last time these teams met in Athens game pace was just 138 attacks (81:70 PAO won). I expect another slow-paced game today with a lot of defense from both sides, because 11 points margin is important factor here. Team can’t take this game lightly because they are close standings and loser will be out of playoffs range. Fenerbahce should seek to get h2h advantage over PAO and greens will do everything to keep it. Panathinaikos fails to score points against more or less solid defensive teams (69 to Baskonia, 69 to Olympiacos and 70 to Efes). Fenerbahce is 4th best home defense in Euroleague and I expect them to be very agressive tonight against greeks.

Not sure, that Obradovic will get many minutes to his new signing Canadian NT forward Bennett, but Bogdanovic is already showing good basketball. My system expect PAO to score less than 73 points, but at such pace Fenerbahce should also be limited under 80 points.

Prediction: Fenerbahce 77 – 69 Panathinaikos

Pick: Under 152 @ 1.92 5/10 WON

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Crvena Zvezda

Home avg. pace: 150 attacks (+)
Home avg. scoring: 1.06-1.11 pts/attack

Away average pace: 146 attacks (-)
Away avg. scoring: 1.04-1.06 pts/attack

Expected pace: 150 attacks

Maccabi playing very weak defensively and nothing can be changed there. They don’t have defensive profile players on point guard and center positions. They only change Bagatskis tried is Q.Miller minutes on center position, but he is normally a power forward and can’t defend against big players. Also, when playing small ball, game pace tends to become faster.

This is absolutely must win game for Maccabi, but numbers say that serbian team should score at least 78 points against poor Maccabi defense. So Maccabi should try to score more than 78 points and they are more than able to do it. Crvena Zvezda are not so good defensively in away games. They did well there against bad offensive teams, but this they will play against one of the best attacks with Weems, Goudelock, Smith and others.

I see good chances for over 155.5 here.

Prediction: Maccabi 83 – 78 Crvena Zvezda

Pick: Over 155.5 @ 1.92 7/10 LOST

FC Barcelona Regal – Anadolu Efes

Home avg. pace: 140 attacks (-)
Home avg. scoring: 1.06-1.11 pts/attack

Away average pace: 150 attacks (+)
Away avg. scoring: 1.04-1.06 pts/attack

Efes is playing good basketball in last rounds and travels to Barcelona with clear goal: hold +4 points margin and try to win. Last week they replaced dissapointing Alen Omic (went to Malaga) with Alex Kirk, but I am not sure about his availability today. Barcelona after 2 losses in a row (Olympiacos and Tenerife) will try to react and win by 4+ points margin. With their 2-6 ATS home record I absolutely understand bookies, who wants to see money flow on Barcelona and they are getting them already because line moved from right -4.5 to -6.

I see close game here with some value now on Efes side. But I would like to get +7 line on Efes for pre-match bet.

As for the total I agree with those, who moved line from 152.5 to 154. But there is one important detail: game pace. In Turkey these teams played very slow basketball (131 attacks) and if pace will repeated (often happens) it will be very difficult to score 150 points.

Milan – Galatasaray

It’s better to stay away from games like this one.

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