Paid picks & previews (January 12th)

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Paid subscription picks archive for January 12th.

Unics – Brose
My line: (-2/153.5)
  • Home avg. pace: 141 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,10-1.12 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 142 attacks (-)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.06-1.08 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 137 attacks
With Unics it’s always risky to take under, because they often forget about defense. 4 of their 8 home game resulted 1.18-1.27 pts/attack scoring, but others had less than 1.07 pts/attack. Brose Baskets is a low pace team, which like to control tempo and normally playing solid defensively not allowing easy points. Nicolo Melli is questionable for Brose (virus infection), but he did a flight to Russia and officialy is game time decision (should play I think). Unics after two losses to Baskonia and Lokomotiv should react at home with better performance especially in defense. 
 
Last time these teams met in Bamberg Unics wasted 10 points lead in 3 quarter and lost 86:89. Game pace was just 138 attacks, but teams scored 48/53 points from FT line. Important to notice that Brose is last team in Euroleague in FT attempts (just 13 attempts per game) and Unics is on 8th place (18 attempts). 
 
I expect slow pace (around 137-138 possessions) and if scoring efficiency will be in logical 1.07-1.15 range this game has good chances to end in 148-158 points range. 
 
Pick: Under 160.5 @ 1.90 5/10
63:58 WON
 
Darussafaka – Baskonia
My line: (-4/158)
  • Home avg. pace: 146 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,08 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 153 attacks (+)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.05 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 146-152 attacks
Darussafaka is home favorite, but Baskonia reanimates Bargnani for this match. Not sure, how he is after long absence, but certainly there is no interest in taking turkish team. 
 
Total is quite difficult to predict, because stats points to fast game, but they had quite slow game in Spain (only 137 attacks were done) and Baskonia easily accept posession based basketball. If game pace will be about 146 posessions – bookies are right in their estimation.
 
Crvena Zvezda – Fenerbahce
My line: (-3.5/146)
 
Fenerbahce is worst possible opponent for CZ. They are 0-7 against them and in most games it was a easy wins for turks. This season Crvena is better team and I think they might fight for a victory against struggling Fener. This game will be played in small arena, which is used for tranings and ABA league matches, so Zvezda will play in their real home arena. 
 
Fenerbahce will have great addition tonight. B.Bogdanovic is expected to play his first minutes after injury, he got at the at start of the season. Z.Obradovic team had too many strange and bad games away from this season. I don’t have much trust to them, especially now, when Crvena Zvezda is so hot and well playing. 
 
For me is best choice here is UNDER, but line is too much adjusted and we don’t have enough value there. 
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