I decided to make some more free stuff for public readers. From now on free score prediction is available for each game, which will be published at game day. Score prediction is based on stats, but sometimes there is another side of coin, that doesn’t allow to risk money and bet on it blindly, when you see it has value.
Fenerbahce – Maccabi
Zalgiris – Olimpia Milano
Zalgiris has troubles with meeting public expectation. They are just 2-4 ATS in last 6 homes and gets -8.5 handicap against Milan, which has full roster available for this match. Lithuanians fans are eager to see M.Kuzminskas against his former club and A.Gudaitis, who is have great season in Italy and Europe. Milan is out of competition, but they won in Khimki 2 weeks ago in same situation. They are not going to help Zalgiris too after lithuanians destroyed them 94:62 in first round.
Identical situation happened last season, when Milan took revenge in Kaunas after losing home game. But this year Zalgiris has motivation and wants to establish at its current position. Milan is comfortable opponent for Jasikevicius, but anyway -8.5 handicap looks too big. As for me Milan +8.5 is the only possible bet, but I can’t trust to Milan our money in such game. Just not feeling this game good enough to risk money.
Valencia – Real Madrid
76 – 82
Panathinaikos – Crvena Zvezda
88 – 71
CSKA – Olympiacos
88 – 72
Under 166 @ 1.94
Olympiacos traveled to Moscow without Kostas Papanikolaou, who has a knee injury problem, Vangelis Mantzaris, who has been in trouble in the last few days with fever and gastroenteritis, but also with Vassilis Toliopoulos, who is ill.
CSKA doesn’t have important missings and will use its best roster in Moscow to get revenge for the loss in Greece this season (86:88) and 4 losses in Euroleague Final Four 🙂
Olympiacos is not a typical team. They rely on domestic and hard working in defense overseas players. But this season they can’t find top player, who can score 20+ pts, when needed. Spanoulis is too old to play at this level whole season. They are trying to compensate it by team effort, but that’s not enough to meet public expectation. They are just 12-14 ATS season long (5-8 on the road).
CSKA 6-7 ATS at home, where they get huge handicaps to cover and 9-4 on the road, where they have less weight. As for me this year CSKA has better team than greeks and in half-friendly game they should take victory at home. They hate Olympiacos style of play, but at home should not have problems with winning. But of course, it depends on Olympiacos desire and motivation to fight in Moscow, because it’s not really important will they finish 2nd or 3rd in the standings.
Total betting looks more interesting. Olympiacos is defensive minded, which is forcing opponent to play low pace game. CSKA this season playing much slower basketball with just 145 attacks average at home. Yes, they can score a lot, but Olympiacos is 2nd best road defense this season and I don’t expect CSKA to score 90+ pts. But Olympiacos offense looks awful this season. They score just 0.98 pts/attack on the road and this is worst result in Euroleague. It’s not hard to calculate that with 70-74 attacks they will have difficulties to score 75 points in Moscow (at least on the paper). And at FT I expect to see something like 88:72 in case CSKA will play its A game and Olympiacos will stay at the same level. 166 line looks too high for me here and stats indicates that we should go with Under here.
Home avg. scoring: 1.13-1.22 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 0.96-1.08 pts/attack
Expected pace: 146 attacks
Expected total range: 153-167 points
Trend to follow:
Olympiacos 10-3 for Under on the road
Anadolu Efes – Khimki
77 – 80
Baskonia – Brose Baskets
86 – 75
Unicaja – Regal Barcelona
77 – 79
Let others know your opinion:
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