Yesterday almost all wented as expected, only Serbia ruined my combo of the day playing superb game over Spain. I have 3 bets in paid subscription, so today one random selection from paid section is free + I will offer one player total pick.
Georgia – Slovenia
In my teams rating these teams are in the same group, but Georgia is few positions higher. They have Pachulia, Shengelia, Markoishvili, Pullen, Sanikidze – players with big international experience, which count on such events as Eurobaket. Yesterday they played bad first half against Netherlands, improved in 2nd half, had a 4 points lead with 1 minutes to play in 4th… But shit happens. Kloof made crazy 3-pointer, Pachulia lost ball and Smeulders hit winner with 18 secs left. Now Georgia one point defecit in possible 3-team tie and must win against direct opponents Macedonia and Slovenia to qualify from the group.
Slovenia has decent roster, but nothing special inside of it. They always had some extra-quality with Nachbar, Lakovic, Goran Dragic, Domen and Erazem Lorbek on previous Eurobasket tournaments and that made them quality team. Now their best player – Zoran Dragic, who is just an Euroleague average level player and nothing more. Blazic, Omic close to that level too, but what about others? They are not better than georgian players and I would say probably weaker..
On neutral ground I can’t see Georgia being 4.5 points underdog in this match up. They are in must win position, while Slovenia still has games against Netherlands and Macedonia ahead. I see at least 50% chance for Georgia to win this game and go with value here.
Pick: Georgia +3.5 @ 1.90 Pinnacle
Poland – Russia
I would go with Poland here, if their victory would be priced ~1.90. Yesterday Russia was not able to defend against Israel in the post and Gortat, Karnowski, Kulig will deliver even more problems to Russian defense. Unfortunately bookmakers did the job well here and set Poland as favs. But if we have an option it worth to consider to take M.Gortat over 15 points. Normally he hets around 11-12 shots during a game + adds 4-7 attempts from free throw line. It means, that his scoring norm is around 16-18 points. Poland must him effectively against poor Russian defence under rim. They are totally missing Kaun and Mozgov there..
And here some quick thoughts about other Sunday games at Eurobasket.
Finland – Israel
As I wrote in group previews Finland is not so strong this year. After yesterday OT with France everyone expect them to win against Israel, but I just can’t see class difference here to see Finland as clear winner. Israel has a chance to qualify to eightfinals and will fight for it until the end. After yesterday win Israel should get moral boost and confidence.
Lithuania – Latvia
Lithuania should be a -7 favorite on neutral ground, so nothing suprising that we see -4 on them in Riga. Latvia find their shot in the second half against Belgium, but did not looked good enough to trust them today. Line is fair for me.
Other games has more or less same line as in my book.