Eurobasket-2015. Day 3. Monday

eurobasket2015I don’t see opportunities for official bets today. Below you can ready why. 

Russia – Finland

It should be easier game for Russians than previous ones, because Finland plays without true center and Russian coach can bench Pateev and use Vorontsevic as center here. I doubt that it will makes russian defence better and tougher, but at least offensively they might be more dangerous. For me Russia has slightly better team by names, but their game play doesn’t look and I can’t trust them money at fair odds.

Finland was not looking good yesterday, but we should not forget about their game with France, where they lost only in overtime. They have the same system and players, who played at Eurobasket-2013 and Spain-2014, and we should understimate them despite their loss to Israel yesterday. Their legs were bad in 1st quarter, which was lost 13:25 and they did not find energy for comeback. But this is new day, new game and very important game for them.

At the moment it’s not bet game for me. I would take Finland +5 or Russia +3, so current line has no value.

Lithuania – Belgium

Belgium is quite dangerous team, but they can’t match against Lithuania deep roster. Also De Zeeuw is questionable for today. If he is out belgian coach will have only 7-men rotation and that will be a big problem to stay in the game for 40 minutes against lithuanians.

Lithuania is fair favorite here, but -8 handicap looks like small overestimations. We can’t talk too much about Lithuanian quality basing on their games against Ukraine and Latvia. So far they did not met opponents with european level players and Belgium is the first one in the list with Van Rossom, Loyeski, Hervelle and Tabu, Gillet and De Zeew on the bench.

I expect low scoring game and Lithuania to win by 4-8 points. Belgium +8 could be an option if De Zeeuw is playing.

Latvia – Czech Republic

I see czechs a better team than current roster of Latvia, but this is an away game for them and nothing strange that we see high odds on Latvia here. They don’t have Satoransky or Vesely and their bench looks weaker too. Czechs so far did 2 “must win” games, but this one is the key in achieving 2nd place and good opponent in eightfinals. I am sure that I would be on Czech team if handicap would be +4. So current line looks fair for me.

Total is based on friendly games and I agree with it. Latvia strongest side – is their 3-point shooting and they can win game only through well working offense, while czechs are more comfortable in defensive games.

Ukraine – Estonia

In my pre-tournament rating is the same strenght group as Estonia, but favorite status on neutral ground. Looking to first games here, seems that Ukraine is better than I expected and Estonia is totally out of form. Maybe that was just a matter of bad starts for baltic team, but now they have pressure and I doubt that they can handle with it. Ukraine is not so much better team, but at the moment I can’t find any reason to back Estonia. Better to skip, because at betting at such short odds on Ukraine is not good idea too.

France – Poland

14 points difference between first and second team in Group A looks few points too high, but this more like a frienly game and if Poland coach will play with extended rotation who knows what difference will be on scoretable. In preparatins and qualifying tournament Poland did not play with France calibre teams and it’s hard to set right estimations here. From first sight Poland +14 looks an option for tv-watching bet, but not for the official one.

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