Today we have the last one day with 12 matches in the schedule. Tomorrow is a rest day and than the most interesting part of Eurobasket will start. Today I have 2 picks (on of them is free) and some thoughts on other games.
Germany – Spain
Spain is set as 9 points favorite against the hosts in do-or-die game for both. With a loss and Turkey win over Iceland, spanish team will be out of Eurobasket and Rio-2016. Looking back to 2013 and 2014 it doesn’t looks surprising, because seems nobody knows what system to install for this hugely talented team. In Berlin, they showed great percentage against Turkey, Italy and Iceland, but Turkey was not playing for result, Italy weak in defence and Iceland has no defensive solutions. Against Germany that should be a different story. Germany knows how to defend, they like to control tempo and, when they have difficulties in offense, they play long possesions with shots at last seconds of possession. Rudy Fernandez has pain in his back again and did not play yesterday in 2nd half. There is no information about his status for tonight game.
Yesterday Germany showed better game in offense (but still were awful from distance – 4/20 from 3 pts). Italy managed to tie the score and win match in overtime. Now they must win over Spain to continue their performance at Eurobasket. Is that possible to do, considering that they 0-7 against them in last 10 years? They definetely need best version of Dirk, Schroeder points and distance shooting to stay in the game and all that might happen.
I like Germany +9 handicap. They were able to trouble Serbia, almost won against Italy and now gets +9 against Spain, which lost to both team. Yes, Spain is definetely better team on paper, but Germany has talent too and still have room for improvement (Dirk, 3-point shooting + defense).
Pick: Germany +9 @ 1.90 Pinnacle
Poland – Finland
Both teams are qualified. So far Poland play much below expectations due the bad quality in offense, despite their group is quite in defensive aspect. Finland as always shoot the ball from all possible angles and fights for all offensive rebounds. The important thing here is that both teams find the opportunity in attack quite fast. My system shows, that we should expect here 167-170 posessions game, which has good chances to finish over 155 points.
Value has gone here, but you can consider over 153.5 (or lower line at in-play) or Poland over 76 points. Check best odds on the Eurobasket at William Hill AU to get some nice offers on team totals and other special markets.
Belgium – Ukraine
With a win Ukraine will qualify to next stage, but they need to overcome class difference against Belgium to achive this goal. Belgium is better team and get respect from bookies. Yesterday they showed how bad they can be against physical defense, but also demonstrated their character by doing a comeback.
Belgium a bit overestimated here, but value is too small to go with Ukraine here.
Slovenia – Macedonia
Slovenia is definetely better team than Macedonia in terms of talent, but experience is experience. Macedonia is older team, maybe less talented and limited in offense, but they have enough class to give a fight to Slovenia. As for me it all depends on Slovenia today. If they continue to show good percentage in offense, as they did in previous games Macedonia has no chances here. But if their attack will string or Macedonia will outperform there we might see a suprise here.
Slovenia is true favorite here, but there is no value on their side. Total market set right, but after 4 overs we can expect first under of Slovenia and Macedonia is good opponent for this with they weak offense.
Latvia – Estonia
Huge pressure on young Latvia in this match. With a loss they will be out of Eurobasket. Estonia found their game by beating Ukraine and giving a fight to Lithuania without Valanciunas and has less pressure than hosts here. Estonia has very loud fan support here and they will not be alone in Riga arena today.