Eurobasket 2009. Day 10. Quarterfinal Betting Tips

Dusan IvkovicSerbia – Russia

Heh.. what a game awaits us. Two very disciplined and organized team with very very good coaches and plenty of young players… It is hard to predict the outcome here because a lot will depend on coach and players decisions on the court, psychology and mentality. Such things are very difficult to predict especially when 2 young teams playing against each other. Personally I hold Serbia as favorite because of their better experienced and better offense which was really hot in last 2 games. When Serbia has a good shooting night it is hard to compete with them. Another question that nobody can tell us will they have it tonight or not.

Russia for sure will try slow pace and make game more physical and force Serbia to play half-court game. This is Russian chance to get to the semis but their offense needs more balance and against good Serbian defense I doubt that Russia will be able to score a lot of points.

I see both teams scoring in the 64-73 range and bookies line is very well done for this match. Just enjoy basketball and root for your favorite team.

Prediction: Serbia 72 – 69 Russia
France – Spain

Another great game. Best group stage team against best team in Europe according to the tournament odds. Spain here in Poland has serious problems with offense mainly because of poor form of their bench players (Mumbru, Lopez, Cabezas, Claver, Lull). But in last 3 games against Lithuania, Turkey and Poland spanish team showed solid defense from which they should play each time while their offense is not with them.

France is looking like more solid team but they are coming from easier half of tournament where only Greece showed top-level basketball. I think that we should overestimate French team but we should respect them. They are good team and their defense is their strongest part of the game. During all summer they allowed more than 72 points only 2 times but they score 80+ pts in those games. It will be hard for France to score layups and fast break points tonight because Spain have 2 big centers in defense when playing half court game and don’t lose balls too much. On defensive end fast and athletic French defenders should be provide some discomfort for Navarro, Rudy and Rubio – players who used to be faster than their opponents.

I don’t think that this is going to be a full-court game. Both teams like such game style but right now too much is placed on the table and defense should roll over offense at this stage of the tournament. Both teams have ability to defend under 70 points and at least one of the teams should score less than 68 points today. To make an over 145 points another team should score more than 76 points and I have some serious doubts that these teams are capable of scoring 75 points against tough defense.

So I expect 132-145 points game here and under 145.5 is my choice for this quarterfinal.

Prediction: France 66 – 72 Spain
Pick: Under 144.5 @ 1.89  BETFAIR
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