Yesterday we have not seen under and underdogs winning and I think tonight we must see at least one over and at one odds favorite failure. But tonight I am planning just to enjoy basketball and watch games without bets. I think it is very hard to predict the pshylogical factor in these derby-type games.
Greece – Turkey
Public like Greece because of their strong start at Eurobasket but let me remind that Group A and B are much weaker than C & D. And looking into last 2 games of Greece against good defensive teams France and Russia I can’t say that they are favorites in this matchup with very strong Turkey.
Turkey have more players who can score points, they have big players who can stop Bouroussis and Baby-Shaq and make a really hard night for Greek offense. But on other side I don’t like to bet on Turkey on the later stages of tournaments. Especially against such opponent like Greece.
Emotions and coach decisions will decide a winner here but I think that Turkey to win @ 2.20 at Betfair represents a value. My odds 1.7-2.30. Good in-play trading opportunity for those who trade at Betfair.
Slovenia – Croatia
Slovenia is sure favorite here because they showed good game on both ends of the floor during whole tournament but it is Balcan derby where everything may happen. Slovenia has more supporters here and this should play for them too. But Slovenia has so many questionable players like Dragic, D.Lorbek, B.Nachbar that is hard to predict them. Another important fact to notice that Slovenia never reached semifinal stage and only once have played in quartefinal. Mentality is important factor here too and we should care about this.
Croatia needs good game from at least 2 big players. So far only Banic shows more or less confident game while Vujcic is totally out of form, Kasun, Nicevic and Loncar are very unpredictable. If someone from this company will assist Banic and score points from the paint on offensive than I see this game pretty close because on guards position Croatia have slight advantage with Popovic-Ukic-Planinic playing against one and only Jaka Lakovic.
Croatia should find a way to score their 75 points to pretend for a win and I expect a close game here until the last minute. I do not recommend to bet on Slovenia at such short odds.