I don’t see Germany as a 5.5 favorite in this game. German team has 65-74 pts defense but their offense is producing in the same range. And so far they played against teams which are not very strong in offense so matchup with offensive-minded Macedonia could be a problem for them.
Macedonia looks like a team which is not doing well on the top-level (games with France and Greece) but are looking really good with teams from their league like Germany, Israel and even Croatia. Macedonia have more creativity in offense and they should find a way to score 70 points tonight if they want to win this game.
Macedonia strategic plan is to win against Germany and fight until the end with Russia. Russia looks like a more difficult match up for them but Germany looks like a opponent they can win.
Pick: Macedonia +5.5
France – Croatia
I think that we should not buy into French big win against Macedonia. Macedonia was not looking like a team prepared for a game and France offensive performance is still a big question for me. Sure French has best defense here but on other side Germany, Latvia, Russia and Macedonia offensively were too easy to break down.
Croatia is another story. They always are capable to score 70 points and looks like in defense they are capable limiting opponents around 68-74 points this year. If offense they need more speed and 3-point shooting to gear up and finally start showing croatian basketball.
Croatia has more motivation to win this game while France may meet Spain in quarterfinals if they will continue fighting for top spot. Sooner or later Croatia should play balanced game and I see value in Croatia winning this game.
Pick: Croatia +5.5