We have the last day of second group stage and very correct lines looking from tournament point of view. I recommend to use only low-medium stakes for tonight games because it is hard to predict teams motivation at least in 2 of tonight 3 games.
Lithuania – Serbia
Serbia is already in quarterfinals but needs a win to claim 3rd spot and right to play with Russia. This is the only motivation for Serbia but let’s not forget about 3 injured players who can see limited time today. Serbia has good defense but offensively they are not looking so great to be 7.5-8 points favorites on neutral ground.
Lithuania finished Eurobasket-2009 but this game is for pride. Everybody in Lithuania are dissapointed with character of this team and for players it is a last chance to show that they are worth something in future. Maybe playing without pressure will help them to start playing at their real level and I am sure that if everything will click on the court for Lithuania they will fight for a win like it is a final of Eurobasket-2009. They just need this win to reinforce theirselves for future tournaments and saying honestly I think that Lithuania motivation will be even higher than serbs.
I see a possible suprise here but it is more a feeling-bet than logical based bet.
Pick: Lithuania +8.5
Spain – Poland
Spain should be feeling ok with Poland fast paced game until they will score points. Looking into last few games looks that Spain is starting to gain form but bench is still not trustable. I see Spain scoring in mid 80’s while Poland offense should have some problems especially under the baskets where Gasol brothers, Reyes and Garbajose should overclass Gortat and Lampe.
I expect a confident Spain win by 8-15 points. Over 153.5 looks interesting but there is a risk that Poland would not score their scoring norm, so if you have a choice it is better to take Spain over 82.5.
Slovenia – Turkey
If this would be a playoff game I would take under 144.5 but this game has questionable motivation because Slovenia might be interested in meeting Russia especially if Lithuania and Spain wins their games. Also Slovenian coach should give some rest for J.Lakovic because of tough schedule and very important games ahead. Skip.