Eurobasket-2011. Day 3 picks

eurobasket_2011_logoWas not able to access site yesterday so day 2 was without coverage. Today and tomorrow only 6 games per day. I go with 3 bets today from 3 different bookies. Actually it is still to early to bet with confidence because big team are not playing on their real level but today we have first important matches and we should wait for 1 or 2 games to decide about team forms and ratings.

Spain – Great Britain

Another warm-up battle for Spain and it is hard to predict what game Spain will play. They are much better team for sure but I feel that GB can play better too. As for me fair line should be -18.5/152 but with such big spreads it is always hard to predict how teams will play when game is decided.. Yesterday GB stopped after -20 and got demolished.

Serbia – Israel

Israel is uptempo team but so far played against low paced teams (Germany and France). Serbia should agree to run and gun style but 156.5 is quite fair even for uptempo match. But -16 line is a bit too long for serbs who always lose concentration in the moment of big lead.

I expect too Israel in 70-78 points range and this should be enough to cover +15.5 spread. I think that fair line is 83-74.

Pick: Israel +15.5 @ 1.90 4/10 Expekt

Portugal – Poland

Two low paced teams meets here after playing high scoring games. If they would play in first day of Eurobasket I think line would be around 140-145 points. Both are quite good defensively and with problems on offensive end. Low pace should help this game to stay under 140 points. I expect 72-66 for Poland.

Pick: under 145.5 @ 1.90 3/10 Unibet

Latvia – Italy

Italy has good offensive potential which was limited by team defense of Serbia and Germany. Latvia has weak defensive and I hardly see them stopping italian stars in defense. Italy should score 80+ points while Latvia should continue their good form with crowd behind them.

Honestly speaking statistically line is quite ok and this is mostly a bet on instincts.

Pick: over 152.5 @ 1.85 3/10 Ladbrokes

Turkey – Lithuania

First real test for Lithuania team. I see some value in Turkey +5 because Lithuania has still a lot of troubles but let’s not forget that Lithuania plays at home and everybody understand the importance of wins grabbed in this group. Spain is hard to beat and with 0-2 it will be tough to qualify for quarterfinals when France, Germany and Serbia will join them.

Very important game and I would like to get Turkey +6.5 to qualify for a small-medium bet. For now I think lay Lithuania at Betfair to back them at higher odds is best money making opportunity.

France – Germany

Another Game of the day where Germany could provide a surprise. Germany at this moment plays really well as a team and with Dirk they have a man who can score when needed. France is much better team in general but at this moment they are not yet started played at their real level. And usually it takes 1-2 games to reach “A-level” game.

I feel that France can beat Germany easily if really motivated, but at these odds no value on France for sure. Under 143 could be a good choice but numbers shows that this game should be decided around 140 points and line advantage is too small for a bet.

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