Eurobasket-2011. Day 5 picks

Dirk Nowitzki and his National TeamToday’s evening program at Eurobasket 2011 is very reach and everu basketball fan could be satisfied. Today I go with 2 picks and one more awaiting a live betting. 

Serbia – Germany

These two teams always play low pace basketball which suits both coaches because Ivkovic and Bauermann like to play brain games on court. For me Serbia is favorite to win this match but now line it too close to bet on them (-4.5 is ok for small bet). 
As for the total I expect very low-paced game because Germany needs time to create space for Dirk and serbian boys will meet first first real defensive bareer too. It is pretty hard to score 148 points when you do 148-155 or less possesions because you need to score in 50% of possesion. Actually both teams could be good in offense but 146 line looks to big for me. 

I expect to see Germany in 64-69 range and Serbia in 71-76. Fair line ~140 points.

Pick: under 146.5 @ 1.95 5/10 Pinnacle

Croatia – Bosnia

After huge Bosnia totals in first round we got 159 total line which than moved to 157. Croatia has enough offensive potential to score 75-85 points but Bosnia could be in real trouble because their offensive game was really not so strong in preparation and here they showed good percentage only against suprisingly bad Montenegro defense which allowed 80+ from Croatia. And actually Bosnia is low paced team which usually force other to play half-court game too.

I expect to see Croatia in 75-85 points and Bosnia under 70. Under is the best choice as for me here. 

Pick: under 157 @ 1.95 5/10 Pinnacle

As for the other games:

Lithuania – Spain

Lithuania lost center Petravicius and it is a big blow in long-term because young Valanciunas is weak defensively especially such Gasol brothers. Today Lithuania could suprise Spain with fast paced game, agressive defense and good offensive game because they play at home. But still all depends on Spain. If they bring their A game so early into tournament Lithuania will be smashed by double digits. That’s how I see this match if it would be played in quarterfinals in example. But now it is only a group stage and everything is possible. 
Don’t forget that Lithuania never was playing good against Spain in official matches. They can play for 2-3 quarters but than 0-10 run allowed and easy win for Spain. Actually yes, at this moment Spain is far better team than Lithuania but they also are priced 1.37 away from home and this is really low odds to back. 

My pick is to back Spain @ 1.80+ during first half in live if Lithuania will start strong. Before the match Spain has no value.

Italy – France

Italy should be in trouble today on offensive end where their style of play will be eaten French defense if it will work at 70% at least. Italy under 68 at William hill @ 1.61 could be taken.. but odds are low.

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