Eurobasket-2011. Day 7 picks

eurobasket_2011_logoToday we have a group of death playing for 4 playoff tickets. Everyone except France is motivated to get victory, but French team today needs to win too because next games are going to be very difficult against dangerous teams (Spain & Lithuania) and if they lose today they will be in complicated situation. So let’s take a quick look into games which are going to be played in Siemens arena, Vilnius (new for all teams, except Lithuania surely).

Spain – Germany

German basketball fans should rename big hit of Gargabe to “Dirk is not enough”. They do have a good team with system and good coach, and they have Dirk who can do miracles. But them to happen they need to have at least 2 players who can help him on perimeter. And they should create danger on offense not only pick up balls (like Kaman) and shoot from open places (like all guards). For now Dirk is doing too much for this team and good defense knows how to move Dirk to uncomfortable place or move the ball out of his hands.

Spain will use big athletes to quard Dirk and that will lock German offense. At least I expect them to lock it because after loss to Turkey Spain is again motivated side and now it is time to start showing defensive capabilities which were completely turned off in Panevezys.

We are going to see a lot of half-court basketball plays because Germany involve all opponents into their slow game and Spain will agree to play at such pace because 1) they save energy 2) their defense is strong to play half court basketball.

I expect to see Germany in 63-69 points and Spain will finish in 74-81. Pick Germany under 69.5 at Betfair or under 68.5 at Expekt with low stakes. Under 148.5 looks good but line moved down to 148 and it is pretty close to fair one which I hold 145.5 line.

Pick: Germany under 68.5 @ 1.85 3/10 Expekt

parker_vs_italyTurkey – France

Here we are going to see a lot of physical basketball which should be quite slow because both teams tends to play slow game. So far France did not show how good they could in defense but against motivated Turkey they must show it. Also it would not be easy for France to score easy points because Turkey conotrol the ball well and strong on the boards.

France is favorite but don’t be suprised to see real fight here. Turkey still a bit unpredictable team but with huge potential if they bring their best game to court. As for the total I think under 142.5 is the best choice because I don’t see winner here scoring more than 73 points. Something like 72-65 is expected score.

Pick: under 143.5 @ 1.87 5/10 5Dimes

Lithuania – Serbia

On neutral ground I would Serbia as 4-5 points favorite to win this match because they play much better basketball than Lithuania. But this game will be played in the capital of Lithuania and in the hear of Lithuania basketball (Siemens arena). Lithuania shows really good numbers in offense and should go to 80+ points again today. The only problem – defense which is not working like needed. But I expect this game to be decided in offense. Serbia has more talented players but with Teodosic is not yet in top shape and finally I expect Lithuania to grab very important victory by few points. Something like 83:79.

Line is really strong and will devide players money as needed. From smart betting point of view I don’t see big value here and it is better to skip and wait for live betting where any handicap close to 9 points should be taken because this is going to be quite close match because both teams can return into the game and blow a big leads.

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