Eurobasket-2011. Day 6 picks

david_blatt_copySo we have the last day of first group phase and starting from Wednesday the real Eurobasket begins in Vilnius. After changing tournament format and participants amount (now we have 24 teams instead of 16) we got too many matches with no real motivation.

Latvia – Germany

If Germany will rest Nowitzki & Kamann I see this game as 1.85-1.85. Actually 2 young teams but Germany already qualified for next round and Latvia with crowd support could get first victory.

Latvia +6.5 with low-medium stakes or Latvia ML @ 3.42 for brave men.

Pick: Latvia +7 @ 1.87 3/10 5Dimes

Serbia – France

Here we should wait for rosters before placing a bet. France has Parker under question and could rest him in this not very important match, while M.Teodosic is questionable for Serbia. He played on injections against Germany and also could be rested or see a limited time today.

If both point guards are going to play than I think over 146.5 is the best pick. If Parker rested than Serbia is favorite for me with -4 line.

Pick: Serbia or over 146.5 (depending on rosters)

Russia – Slovenia

Actually it is time to change world rankings now. In last 3 or 4 years Slovenia was on a roll but this year they are much weaker without Nachbar and have too many old foxes like Lakovic, Udrih, Jagodnik who can be used only as rotation options but forced to play on a main roles.

Russia under Blatt with Kirilenko is the real force in this group and I am pretty sure that Blatt knows that if they win today they will get really nice positions to enter quarterfinals from first place and meet Germany/Poland/Turkey there…

Russia is very good defensively and should dominate of defensive end against weak Slovenia offense. I expect to see Slovenia in 63-68 pts range and Russia should score 73-79. I think that -7 is fair line here.

Pick: Russia -4.5 @ 1.91 4/10 Gamebookers

Finland – Montenegro

No doubt Montenegro is the better team with better players but it has no chances to promote from the group. But I think they will fight for a pride and have good chances to win against Finnish team which should be 3.5 points dog here in normal conditions.

So we have the last day of first group phase and starting from Wednesday the real Eurobasket begins in Vilnius. After changing tournament format and participants amount (now we have 24 teams instead of 16) we got too many matches with no real motivation. 

Greece – Croatia

Both needs to win but I can’t decide who is the better teams. Greece showed signs of life yesterday and Croatia known as big time loser. They always lose in hard moments and yesterday loss to Bosnia another prove of this. 

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