Eurobasket in Lithuania heating up and yesterday we saw 3 really interesting games. Same picture should be today in Group F where Russia will play against Finland surprise, well looking Macedonia against Georgia and evening session will be a battle between Greece and Slovenia.
Russia – Finland
Finland is not a bad team at all. If they would be able to make Mottola younger I think they would pretend for place in quarterfinal round. They good shooters and nice rotation on first first 3 positions and quite good defense which can defend under 77 points. But their weak points it is their big men which are not close to level which is needed to perform good at such high level. Mottola is too old and slow and they don’t have clear center.. And because of that they will be in trouble today.
Russian coach David Blatt knows how to destroy opponents offense with his team defensive capabilities. Russian should continue to dominate with its physical defense over fins and offensively should use their mass and height to score points from the paint. Mozgov, Kirilenko and Antonov will damage fins inside the pain while Khriapa & Monia will shoot from 3 points zone with penetrating abilities.
I see this game as one sided in case Russia will score points easily. In Klaipeda their offensive was not looking great but today they will have problem the easiest offensive task on this champ.
As for the line -10.5/143 does not look good for medium bet. Maybe we can assume that Russia will score 78+ but will Finland score 65 against best tournament defensive team? I doubt but fingers crossed I would bet on over 142.5 if this would be must bet game for me. Fortunately I have option to skip it at least before the match.
Georgia – Macedonia
Georgia lost Paculia and left only with Sanikidze and Markoishvili. Other players are very far away from level which is needed for Eurobasket and without suppport from the stands (most of georgians fans left Lithuania after first stage) will be in difficult position today.
Macedonia playing with confidence on this champ and they know that with a win they can start thinking about quarterfinal round and prepare their boddies for Olympic ticket. This their goal at this tournament.
Macedonia can defend in 57-65 points range when needed and without Paculia I see Georgia in 58-67 points range (not higher). Offensively Macedonia has much more options to score than their opponent and also their players are better and experienced.
I expect to see Macedonia in 69-75 points range while Georgia will be in trouble offensively and will not score 67 points. Something like 72-61 is expected score.
Pick: Macedonia -6.5 @ 1.90 Expekt 3/10
Slovenia – Greece
My numbers shows that Greece has better defense and offense and my feelings also on greek side here. Slovenia was not playing really good in any of matches in first phase and their almost won game against Russia based mostly on bad russian offensive game and referees support.
Greece lost only to really good playing Macedonia but other games were won quite easy and looks like future of Greek NT does not look so bad as many thought. They have strong starting five + 3-4 bench options. And they are progressing while Slovenia with SModis, Lakovic, Jagodnik, Slokar are regressing..
My total estimations: Slovenia 61-69 pts, Greece 68-74.. So Greece should be favored here.
Pick: Greece to win @ 1.99 Pinnacle 5/10