Eurobasket-2011. Day 9 picks

kalnietis_copyWe have 3 nice matches today in group E and it would be day to remember for basketball fan if all of these matches would be decisive. Unfortunately any of them could no be called as do-or-die for both teams. Maybe only germans and lithuanians are really enough motivated to consider motivation as factor. 

Spain – Serbia

This game do not decide nothing for teams but Spain is a bit more motivated because they are looking for revenge from 2010 World Championship and also they want to finish first to avoid France or Lithuania in semifinal round. Serbia has no motivation here because their most important game will be played on Sunday against Turkey where they need to be fresh, full of emotional energy and concentration.

I don’t expect high level of basketball today and probably under 158 is the best choice. I expect quite easy Spain revenge by something like 82-73.

Turkey – Germany

Turkey needs to win tomorrow but if they lose today they will motivate Germany against less motivated Lithuania and who knows what will happen.Germany has no other choice than to win against Turkey but also they know that they need to win against Lithuania to have real chance and Serbia needs to lose to Turkey… too much should happen for Germany to make them 100% motivated in this situation.

I think turks will do everything to win this match, but current line is exactly the same as I see the match. Maybe total could 1.5-2 points lower to make this line absolutely perfect.

Lithuania – France

Game of the day for Lithuania. With a win they enter quarterfinal round officialy and will get ticket to London because I can’t imagine them losing to any E group team in Kaunas arena. Lithuania showed very nice basketball against Serbia and looks that their getting hot these day with hitting best when needed again.

France is less motivated here. Gelabele injured and will miss 2 games, Parker and Noah should be limited as some French basketball follower reported to me.

I see Lithuania in 81-92 points range here while France should finish in 74-83. With crowd support motivated Lithuania should win quite comfortable by 3-11. Motivation is to win as much as possible to have better position in Spain-France-Lithuania possible tie. If Lithuania gets 1 or 2 spot in a group they will avoid Spain until Final.

Pick: Lithuania (-3) @ 1.90 4/10 Unibet (Expekt)

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