Eurobasket-2011 Qualification: Day 3 Picks

eurobasket-2011I am sorry for being short today. As for me lines are far from being ideal but it it still hard to evaluate teams real power because few matches were played and some teams like Italy, Israel and Bulgaria stiill have not show their real faces yet.

Bulgaria – Poland

Public bet on Poland tonight but for me there is no clear favorite in this game. Poland maybe have better players but at home Bulgaria always very dangerous team capable to damage any team in Europe maybe excluding Spain.  I stay away from betting on this game but my lean is Bulgaria to grab narrow victory.

Israel – Latvia

Israel has much better and solid roster than Latvia. I expect high pace and big defensive troubles for Latvia because it is not easy to defend against such offensive team as Israel. They can score from perimeter, from low post, from fast breaks and after pick-n-rolls. I expect something like 89-72 for Israel.

Pick: Over 154.5

Portugal – Belgium

Both teams are not offensive minded and often fails to score 70 points but both can defend under 70 points especially if game pace is slow and opponent is not very good in offensive skills. I doubt that we will see a lot of points in this game because for both teams it is extremely important match. Portugal needs victory to stay in Eurobasket-2011 ticket run while for Belgium this is their only chance to grab away victory which is very important for them if they want to promote into next round.

All in one, slow pace should lead to low score here as well as it was one year ago when they scored 118 points.

Pick: Under 140.5

Italy – Finland

Italy could not be worser than they were in their 2 matches. I expect Italy finally to find their offense and score over 80 points. Not sure about Finland points but I think that final result could be few points over 150 points. 83-68 or something like that.

Pickl: Italy over 79 points

UK – Macedonia
Hungary – Bosnia

These matches I am skipping because I never was good in predicting Macedonia, Bosnia away games.

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