Eurobasket-2011 Qualification: Day 4 Picks

eurobasket-2011Georgia – Portugal

Georgia is not a type of team which can easily cover such big handicaps because their offense is not so strong and they are not fast team too. Against slow paced Portugal it is hard to expect a lot of points but with Georgia domination under the boards everything is possible.

 

As for me safest bet here is under 148.5 points but there is a risk that Georgians will have a good shooting night and score up to 85 points what can ruin under bet.

Ukraine – Hungary

Hungary is young team with core of players 22-23 y.o.. As all young teams they like to play fast tempo and can’t control pace. After winning against Bosnia they may have higher confidence in offense. But their defense is a weak side. They don’t have tall players and also they lack strength under boards. And this weakness should cost them a lot today because Ukrainian has very strong forward & center rotation where Lischuk (Valencia), Fesenko (Utah Jazz), Pecherov and  Kravtzov should dominate during all 40 minutes.

Also ukrainian might agree to run more with Hungary and all this may lead to confident Ukraine win by double digits. I think we can expect something around 83 to 66 for Ukraine this evening.

Pick: Ukraine (-7.5) @ 1.86 3/10 Pinnacle

Montenegro – Italy

Italy has enough bodies for foul-tactics against N.Pekovic and name by name they are not weaker than Montenegro. But as team Montenegro looks much more solid and at home it will be very tough for Italy to compete against them. However if Italy will be able to usu Giachetti on PG position it might be a big boost for them because so far PG position was the main problem for Italian NT. Now when Giachetti is back to the roster he can take over this position and let Belinneli to play his usual SG or SF position.

A lot will depend on italian ability to control their game. I watched them 3 times and have to say that their adding each week but they still can’t play at good level for all 40 minutes. Against Montenegro it would not be easy but +10.5 handicap is just too big here. As for handicap here should not be higher than 6.5 points but it does not guarantee that Italy would win or lose by few points margin. Sometimes you see that line is wrong but you can’t bet on it because you can’t trust a team.

Finland – Israel

Finland lost Mottola due the injury and without him they should be moved to nobet category. Israel looks really motivated to win in Finland to book their Eurobasket-2011 ticket as soon as possible but -8.5 handicap in away games is simply too much. Skip.

Belgium – Bulgaria

Belgium has 0-6 record against Bulgaria in last 4 international seasons. I can’t say that Belgium is favorite here. As for me this is a tight battle where Bulgarian chances are at least 45%. Belgium has handicap only because they play at home and maybe they will Van Den Spiegel. For me Bulgaria has all chances to fight for the victory in Belgium but I don’t have confidence in them.

Bosnia – England

Unfortunately Bosnia lost N.Dragic for whole qualification campaign due the broken arm. This is only reason why I fear to bet on Bosnia victory against highly overrated Great Britain. Great Britain should clear dogs in Bosnia as for me because they had troubles with very weak Hungary and were lucky to win in OT against Macedonia at home. Bosnia on other side has very strong home court pressure and a lot of experience and weight under the boards to stop Mensa-Bonsu at least and one-and-only Luog Deng can’t win away matches in Europe.

I will try Bosnia to win this game but will lower my stake to low because of Dragic injury.

Pick: Bosnia @ 1.91 3/10 Pinnacle

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