Semifinal. France – Spain

lullLast year France killed Spain “Dream Team” in front of 15000 spectators, who came to Madrid sports hall. Since the beginning of Eurobasket reading between the lines I felt how Spain wants revenge. In such games players forgot about back pains, tendinitis and other things. I can’t miss opportunity to back Spain here, but handicap market set correctly here and I decided to go with total and low-stake on Spain over 71 points.

So far France showed solid defensive performance, but what about opponents offensive level? They played in weakest group, than won against Turkey, which never was known as high-quality team in offense. Latvia had some scoring flashes against them, but in 3rd quarter scored only 7% of their shots, but scored 70 in the end. Spain has second-best offense here with 1.04 points/possession and unbelievable Gasol scoring from all distances. The key problem for Spain is their bench, which is not producing many points as we used to see. But in such game I expect Spain to show very aggressive game on both ends of the floor and die on court for the victory, revenge and guaranteed ticket to Rio next year.

France defensive according to my system should be able to limit Spain offense in 0.88-0.94 pts/poss. range, but Spain should be able to do 80-82 possession here and score 70-77 points. This is where I see value and true reason for this bet. I also will support Spain for the win, but at these odds and situation there is no value in outcome market.


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