Already 9 weeks of Euroleague action are in the past. So far this season going quite well, despite some profit drop in last few weeks. But it’s normal situation, because it’s impossible to stay with 35% ROI at such strong markets. Anyway paid picks delivered 8% ROI profit after 35 bets and that’s not bad result. If you would like to unlock closed preview and get picks at 11:00 CET instead of waiting them till the evening read the terms and contact me.
Last week nothing special happened, so not much changed in power rating. CSKA and Olympiacos are the top, Zalgiris is at 3rd position and then goes big group of teams, who were hot in last 2-3 weeks (Fenerbahce, Real, Baskonia).
And here what we have for upcoming week in Euroleague.
T.Robinson will miss several month of action due the broken hand. Huge blow for Khimki, because American center was one of the best players. But they have enough players to replace him at PF-C position. But of course, they will need time to find balance. A.Gill has returned to the action last week.
Brose showing great character at home, where they won two games against Barcelona and Valencia by cutting huge defecits. They have very mediocre players this season and in the long term I expect to be somewhere at the bottom.
Khimki should stop their losing streak and finaly get first ATS win at home (currently they are 0-5 ATS). Brose is very disciplined team, but Khimki has good attack, that should explode against weak Brose defense. Seems that market overstimates Brose and T.Robinson.
I am absolutely sure that Khimki should not got with pk line against Brose on neutral field (as -4.5 spread at home suggests).
Very interesting match awaits us in Turkey. It is important for standings, but also we have Simon, Dragic playing against their ex-teams. Milano will be without Goudelock and Cianciarini + A.Gudaitis is game time decision. Both teams has difficulties defensively and can score in numbers, especially if opponent doesn’t press defensively. Milan is weakest defensive team, who comes to Efes court this eason (Real, CSKA, Unicaja and PAO are much better defensively), while Milan should have easy scoring night against very soft Efes defense (worst home defense allowing 1.21 pts/attack).
Maccabi is coming off its heaviest defeat of the season to date, losing by 22 points (89-67) at Barcelona last week and before that they lost to Efes 72:92 at home. Zalgiris, guided by coach Sarunas Jasikevicius, who led Maccabi to Euroleague crowns in 2004 and 2005, also owns a 5-4 record. The Lithuanians have won three of their last four games, beating Efes last week.
Both teams rely on developed system, but Saras system is well developed and known by his players, while Spahija needs time to build a team. At the moment Maccabi looks relatively short with just eight players getting 15+ minutes per game. Many players still can’t find their role in coach system.
Zalgiris as for me is deeper and more experienced team. They know how to react in bad moments, they know how good they are when playing within the system. Everyone is healthy and I expect guests to fight for the victory tonight. And of course we have to continue our ride on Zalgiris road trend, where they took 5 spreads in a row this season.
Valencia without Dublevic and Abalde (Diot, Williams are long term misses). Olympiacos without Mantzaris and Agravanis (Tillie long term miss), but Spanoulis has traveled and his return is expected. Valencia after 5 losses in a row is very motivated, but they are new at this level with many players without EL experience.
Both teams prefet to play slow-paced basketball and I see it as they key for the Under here. Valencia can’t allow another 80+ show in defense and take care about Oly offense, which is really not working great this season. I expect defensive battle here with good chances for 4th under in a row at Valencia home court, but this is more a system pick.
The match will be difficult for a Baskonia that can’t count on Ilimane Diop, Patricio Garino and Jordan McRae. Janis Timma is serious doubt due to an overload in the knee that has prevented him from training during the week. On the other hand, the newcomer Kevin Jones will be available to Pedro Martinez.Fenerbahce is not good at Buesa Arena (0-5) and I don’t to repeat the mistake I did when backed Real as a favorite in Vittoria. Baskonia is 8-1 ATS as home underdog in last 2 seasons. So we should think twice before going against them with Euroleague champs.Game should be medium paced, because Fenerbahce force everyone play half-court basketball. It all will depend on shooting efficiency. With average numbers it is 145-157 points total, just 4 points above the total line and it is not enough to take Under without other signals.
Real still experience troubles with roster. Many players are low with injuries and that was a main reason of 4 losses in last 5 games. Of course, Real will do everything to get a win against young serbian team. But it’s hard to find a reason to back Real 12 points handicap against full and healthy Crvena Zvezda roster.
I expect to see serbian team in 70-75 pts range. Healthy Real would be able to put 90+ pts but without so many important for offense players it’s more logical to see them scoring 85-92 pts.
CSKA Moscow – Barcelona
Let others know your opinion:
Want to get more Euroleague picks & previews delivered daily to your email? Become a paid member and get predictions with 19% ROI in last 4 seasons! Check the stats!
Earn more profit with highest odds on handicaps and totals at Pinnacle!