Here we are. Just 4 games left till the end of Euroleague 2015/16 season end. But what a games awaits us tonight in Berlin. I have two bets for tonight, which become available after early market moves. I will go against the public here, but there are good reasons to trust my total expectations. Good luck with your selections.
CSKA – Lokomotiv
CSKA traveled to Berlin with only one absence – Joe Freeland is out until the end of season. Lokomotiv in full force, but Delaney did not play in VTB league playoffs (most likely was rested). Also A.Randolph played just once, while other key players minutes were limited. Lokomotiv goal this season is clear – try to win Euroleague at all costs. And actually we can’t exclude such option, because they already beat CSKA in Moscow and we know how nervous are CSKA players in Final Four, where they lost in 3 semifinals in a row.
For me it’s quite clear that CSKA are true favs here, but I agree with market here, which thinks that Lokomotiv +7 is a too big handicap in such game as this one. On paper CSKA has longer list of quality players, more experience, better offense but.. I think that key moment here is moment of form. If Loko leaders were able to hit their best form after resting almost two weeks – we can expect a suprise here. Loko has enough quality in defense to trouble CSKA scoring machine and I have big doubts about CSKA ability to defend. We know that CSKA has defensive unit, when Itoudis is using Jackson-Higgins-Fridzon-Hines-
Chriapa, but he will never risk in this manner in case this will be close game. Only if CSKA will be down by 10 points and more we can see some defense from them. De Colo and Teodosic should get more playing time today to trouble Loko defense, which was not able to stop them in both VTB league games.
As for the total it worth to notice that CSKA is 9-4 for over in away games and Loko is 9-5 for over too. CSKA will try to avoid slow-paced basketball and Loko usually accept higher pace, when they play out of Krasnodar. That’s why I see 150+ attacks here and statistically we can’t miss opportunity to bet on over, because CSKA away from home has 1.12 pts/attack and Loko numbers are impressive too (1.078 pts/attack). With 150+ attacks pace we have nice chance for 162+ points here. Bookies did right estimation when set 160 line here, but public moved line in wrong direction.
Prediction: CSKA 86 – 79 Lokomotiv
Pick: Over 158.5 @ 1.96 7/10 Pinnacle
Fenerbahce – Laboral
Fenerbahce recovered Vesely on-time (he played several games in Turkey), Sloukas & Antic improved their form after injuries. So Z.Obradovis has its best players in good conditions and it’s absolutely clear, that Fenerbahce has much more power, experience and class on their side against Laboral.
V.Perasovic has built good team, full of workers, but it is missing top-class players to win titles. Bouroussis is the only player we know, but it would not be easy for him to dominate in paint against Vesely and Udoh. Guards will be under huge defensive pressure and I can’t see match-ups, where Laboral has advantage here. I think that bookies did good job by setting Fenerbahce as strong favorite to win this game. But I have no desire to take Fenerbahce at fair odds and handicap. Better to wait for good start of Laboral and take Fenerbahce at 1.90+ higher in play.
Both teams are defensive minded. Laboral has high averages, because they usualy play very fast paced basketball, but against lower-paced teams like Oly, Brose, Panathinaikos they played at slow pace. Tonight they will meet slowest Euroleague team, which force all teams play their game. And according to my expectation this game should have around 145 attacks. Fenerbahce away games efficiency is 1.043 pts/attack (thanks to their very tight defense) and Laboral has even lower number – 1.012 pts/att. (due the bad offensive quality and great defense).
My system expects here 136-153 points game, so again bookies were right, when they started with 152.5 line, which was moved by public to 157..
Prediction: Fenerbahce 81 – 68 Laboral
Pick: Under 156 @ 1.92 7/10 Pinnacle
Let others know your opinion: