Euroleague April 6th games preview & picks

Zeljko Obradovic FenerbahceLast round of regular season will decide who will finish on 4-7th positions. Today I offer you previews, picks & live betting advices for Thursday games. Feel free to comment and offer your own thoughts and picks.

Fenerbahce – Barcelona
My line: (-10.5/142)
This is the last chance for the hosts to get home-court advantage in their playoff series, but at this point, their own fate is not in their hands, as Fenerbahce only will make it if it wins this last game and both Baskonia and Panathinaikos lose their games.
Barcelona will be without Brad Oleson, dragging discomfort in the ankle after suffering a sprain, Renfroe, Doellman, Faverani and long-term injured Lawal and Ribas. Young Rodion Kurucs and Stefan Peno complete the roster.
Only Luigi Datome is absent for the hosts. Bogdanovic has played in Madrid, and K.Sloukas was expected to step on the court in Spain, but missed the game.
Numbers talking for Under 146.5, but Fenerbahce is 11/14 for Over 146.5 at home and to be honest I am not sure about special motivation here from both teams. Fenerbahce is capable of winning at any court in Europe and they might steal home court advantage in playoffs. Barcelona also might take this game lightly and play soft in defense.
And of course, there is no value on handicap market, because it includes all roster problems for catalans and motivation factor.
Brose – Galatasaray
My line: (-4.5/155.5)
Public jumps on over here looking to Brose trend (12-2 Over at home) and average numbers. But bookies has opened their lines with 161.5 points for a reason. Galatasaray is 10/14 for Under 164.5 and 11-3 for Under on the road. In last home games Brose stopped scoring with high efficiency, but was not able to defend against motivated teams like Zalgiris, Fenerbance, Baskonia and Darussafaka. Defensive job should easier tonight against weak Galatasaray offense, which scores just 0.90 pts/possession in away games. Also game pace should be low and we might see a lot of minutes for 2nd units players from both sides.
Finally, Brose is on the 6 overs run and there is big statistical chance that it will be over, especially against such underish team as Galatasaray. But of course, there is statistical value too. Check stats below:
  • Home avg. pace: 144 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,13-1,21 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 144 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 0.99-1,12 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 140 attacks
  • Expected total range: 148-163 points
Pick: Under 165 @ 1.95 7/10 
Maccabi – Panathinaikos
My line: (+4.5/151.5)
Chris SingletonFate is in Panathinaikos’s own hands; a win for the Greens would make sure that they end up fourth in the standings and keep home-court advantage for their playoff series. The same would happen if Baskonia wins its game elsewhere. Losses in other games by both Anadolu Efes Istanbul and Fenerbahce Istanbul would also put Panathinaikos in fourth place. There are other scenarios that could complicate Panathinaikos’ final ranking among the top four, but all of them mean that the Greens would have to lose the game, so the guests will be more focused than ever in Tel Aviv.
Outcome odds are set very well here. Panathinaikos is the only motivated side here, they are playing well right now, all players are well installed into team game. Maccabi on opposite side has nothing close to that. Q.Miller may return tonight to the field, but not sure if Bagatskis will risk him in friendly game.
I like PAO chances to win in Tel-Aviv, but I would like to see at least 1.90 odds to take them.
Advice: Wait for higher odds on Panathinaikos (1.90+ is ok) at in-play
Baskonia – Zalgiris
My line: (-7.5/157.5)
Baskonia cannot qualify among the top four teams to gain home-court advantage in the playoffs, but the result of this game could severely affect the final distribution of berths for the next round. Zalgiris coach said that despite this game means notning for his team, they will fight for the victory. But I would be surprised to hear something else from Saras 🙂
At the moment Baskonia is different class team and at home should get at least -7.5 line. Not sure about -9, because it depends from mood, motivation and concentration, but anyway I don’t see any room for a bet here. It’s typical friendly game, where Baskonia might try to choose opponent in playoffs, because they will know Fenerbahce and Panathinaikos results. If I would be Baskonia coach I would try to finish 7th to meet CSKA in playoffs.
Advice: After Fener and Pao games check if Baskonia needs to lose to get 7th place and try Zalgiris to win @ 5.00..
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