If you remember, Barcelona was closed as 5 points dogs in Moscow, but CSKA won by 11 points without De Colo and Freeland. That line was opened with +7.5 and public jumped on Barca due the value, which has existed for many bettors (including me). Healthy Barcelona should go here as 2-3 points favorite, but bookies doing a trap here by giving Barcelona 3 points handicap, despite CSKA injuries (Khriapa and Nichols are out).
CSKA is not going to take this game lightly. They want to win every game in Euroleague and kick off big teams from tournament to avoid them in Final Four. They won twice against Real Madrid and will do everything to repeat their success against catalans too. If they won without De Colo and Freeland in Moscow, it’s hard to find a reason, why they should fail in Barcelona today.
I don’t believe in hosts to take mathematical value in this game, but there is no sense to take CSKA at such odds too.
As for the total I expect high percentage game from both teams and if pace will be high than line is correct. But in Moscow game pace was quite slow (139 attacks). If that pace will be again today that we might see easy under. Unfortunately my system shows that pace will be high and that’s why there is no sense to take under on pre-match market.
I recommend to bet on CSKA with odds around 2,00 at in-play market in case of strong Barcelona start.
Prediction: Barcelona 84 – 88 CSKA
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