Barcelona – Olympiacos

spanoulis 2014Olympiacos travels to Barcelona without V.Spanoulis and lines reacted with handicap drop from “-2,5” to “-5”. Is there any sense to bet on Barca at such odds?

With such lines and their speedy movements Euroleague betting become a total waste of time. Few years ago it’s was very interesting competition with many mistakes and value bets. And these days lines are a fair or with low value in best case. In most cases, side you would like to is value-less and looking long-term we can’t place such bets. But we can’t change this. This is new reality…

Ok, lets go to the match itself.

Handicap betting

Teams comes to this game with different motivation. Barcelona urgently needs to collect wins, if they want to be in playoffs. Olympiacos at the moment is absolutely safe with 11 wins. Decision to rest V.Spanoulis proves that Olympiacos thinking long-term right now and is not taking this game too seriously.

Barcelona after disaster in Bamberg must react in Euroleague. But they are not playing up to their and public expectations. Everyone except Perperouglou are healthy and ready to play against greeks.

Barcelona opened with -2.5 handicap was a good choice. Now, when line moved to -5 (after news about Spanoulis) it has less value. Olympiacos is more than Spanoulis these days. I don’t think that his absense worth 2 points handicap. Olympiacos will try to to fight for +7 margin from first game, while Barcelona main goal is just to win.

Advice: to wait for 1.90+ odds on Barcelona at in-play.

Total

Home avg. pace: 141 attacks (-)
Home avg. scoring: 1,11 pts/attack

Away average pace: 144 attacks (-)
Away avg. scoring: 1.06-1.11 pts/attack

Total is set at 147 points, but it’s hard find value, because game pace might be very slow (136-139 attacks expected by me here). Expected range 144-150 points, so 147 looks like fair estimation. But trends support an over scenario here:

  • Barcelona  is 4-2 for Over/Under in last 6 home games
  • Olympiacos is 4-2 for Over/Under in last 6 away games

Advice: take over 141,5 at in-play

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This article has 2 Comments

  1. One suggestion. It would kind of you to share the opinion about paid picks after those games. You will not disturb your customers, while will expand material on your website and help more to all visitors.

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