Baskonia – CSKA

Sito AlonsoCSKA, which is just 5-10 against the spread this season, awaits difficult task in Vittoria. 

Baskonia lost by 8 and 2 points in Moscow, but in both games CSKA wasted double digit lead. I can’t say that Baskonia was much weaker side, but they defenitely need more quality to compete at this level on the road. At home things might change, because there basques has own public and believe in miracles. Looking at awful CSKA road trend (3-9 ATS in last 12 games) I might assume, that Baskonia has really good chances to fight for the victory today. But I really can’t see them as true favs in Game 3, however numbers & history are pointing to that.

” We have not yet fully believed that we can win CSKA . Trying it does not suit me, you have to. You have to win everything to win a team of these characteristics, “said Sito Alonso.

To beat CSKA in the third round, the coach has clear what the team will have to do:

” Above all we have to throw a basket and not lose balls in moments where the match can be broken. Fighting is part of our DNA and we have to do things that deserve victory on our side . “

CSKA has lost Game 3 in 5/6 playoff series, where they had 2-0 lead after 2 games. Everything is set for another upset, but I think that bookmakers & public already adjusted odds here. Last time Russian team played in Vittoria there were 4.5 points road favorite and lost 78:79. Now they are getting -1.5 spread and that looks like adjustment for me.

I see Baskonia as light favorite here, but far from position to see them as clear favs. Line is not right here, but value is too low to bet on hosts.

Total line is set few points higher, than it should. My system expects 154-170 points game tonight, but that also doesn’t give us enough space to take under.

Live-betting advice: wait for 173+ line to take UNDER or 2.40+ line for Baskonia in first half

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