Baskonia has of last 7 games scheduled at home and each game can be won (Khimki, Zalgiris, Brose, Maccabi and Efes), road games against Valencia and Barcelona will be difficult, but both opponents not motivated. So I rate Baskonia chances to achieve playoffs very high. There are no important injury news – all key players are healthy.
T.Robinson appeared last week against PAO and that’s huge improvement for Khimki. With him they have full rotation at PF-C position and they will be even better in rebounding and 2nd chances scoring. Actually, Khimki doing very well in last few rounds. They won 5 of 6 games played and playing good basketball, but with up and downs.
As for me Baskonia has too many average players, who can’t do the games ownself. They have bench depth, good team spirit, but they don’t have enough top players to get points in close games. I see them at the same level as Khimki anf therefore -4.5 handicap looks fair to me here. Bookies gives -5.5 and I decided to got with that tiny value, because Khimki is 8-3 ATS on the road and Baskonia is 2-4 as home favorite.
Baskonia doesn’t care about points margin here. I see both teams fighting for the victory here and Khimki +5.5 is my choice here.
Zalgiris – Barcelona
Valencia – Brose Baskets
Milan – Anadolu Efes
Maccabi – CSKA Moscow
Crvena Zvezda – Unicaja
Panathinaikos – Olympiacos
Real Madrid – Fenerbahce
Real will miss T.Tompkins, but they can compensate him easily with their wide rotation. In last games Doncic doesn’t show his best game and Real experience some troubles in getting wins against top teams. They lost to Olympiacos and than cup event was lost to Barcelona. P.Lasso wants to recover its team, but seems that Real doesn’t care a lot about result right now. They are looking long term and know that they can beat almost any team on the road to return home court advantage in the playoffs.
Fenerbahce has all its players again. Nikolic and Nannually are back and now Obradovic might use bench power to dictate the pace on the court. They lost at home to Real 77:79, so normally should seek for a 3 points win to get h2h advantage and almost guarantee finish in the Top-4.
As for me Real this season is slightly better team than Fener and -5.5 line at home looks more or less correct to me, despite poor Real recent form. Total market is also a difficult one to bet. Game pace will be slower than average. In Turkey it was 147 attacks, bet Fener tends to play slower on the road. I expect about 145 attacks and stats below prove that line is fair:
Home avg. scoring: 1.05-1.14 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.08-1.18 pts/attack
Expected pace: 144 attacks
Expected total range: 153-167 points
This going great game to watch, but it’s not good for betting at least with these odds.
Let others know your opinion:
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