Euroleague Betting Tips for Round 6 (November 9-10)

Granger Baskonia vs. PanathinaikosAs promised before the season Euroleague power rating returns to our site. This betting tool should normally help you to understand which teams to follow in long term and which teams are performs bad and doesn’t return any profit. Also some interesting over/under and ATS trends are easy to read.

Below you can see how it looks like after 5 rounds.

Game previews

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CSKA Moscow

CSKA – Valencia

Picks:

Valencia +10.5 @ 1.95 7/10 LOST
 Under 162 @ 1.98 5/10 WON

BC Valencia

Vidorreta will recover Juan Sastre, a key player in his defensive schemes. His return will restructure the outside rotation. Antoine Diot and the power forward Latavious Williams will remain low.

CSKA will miss L.Westermann, but that means that N.De Colo will have more playing minutes. Other players are healthy and ready to play.

There are two bets I like.

1) Valencia is 2-1 ATS on the road and CSKA covered only against weak Panathinaikos (0-3 ATS on the road). With Sastre back spanish team has healthy 10-man rotation. Of course, they don’t have players like De Colo and Rodriguez, but anyway they are good, well-balanced team with huge team experience. Don’t forget that they are the winner of Endesa League and Eurocup finalist. CSKA is good team, but no so good as public see them… Did you know that CSKA is just 1-9 ATS as double digit home favorite in last 10 situations like this one? I think that we should try Valencia handicap again, as we did against Fenerbahce, where Valencia was competing well for most of the game, but lost 66:79 in the end.

2) Valencia is 3-0 for Under on the road. That’s already enough to consider under bet here. And there 2 more reasons to try it. First one – slow pace (about 140 attacks) will require 1.17 pts/attack average quality to reach 163 points. CSKA this season often use defensive units on field (Higgins, Clyburn, Hunter, Kurbanov, Fridzon, Khriapa) that limits their offense, but improves defensively. Best perimeter defender is back for Valencia too. So there is good chance for good matchups in defense. There is not enough value to take with normal stake, so I advice to take it as system bet.

 

 Maccabi – Real Madrid

Pick:

under 165 @ 1.91 7/10 LOST

 Real Madrid

Maccabi had quite and easy start in Euroleague, when hosted out-of-form Baskonia, not yet at best form Milan and Olympiacos and playing away against Brose and Crvena Zvezda (two weak teams). They lost to Olympiacos (68:69), but they also far from best conditions at the start of the season.

Real travels to Israel without Ayon, but Tompkins is back (and Randolph played last week already). At the moment they are hottest team in Euroleague, despite they lost to Khimki last week at home. They are very well balanced team with huge quality in starting five and at the bench. I just can’t see which line at Maccabi is better.

The problem is that bookies giving Real as 4-points road favorite and it’s close to fair estimations. I think that -5 or -5.5 is fair handicap and we should not jump on it before the game. Maybe Maccabi will start well and than we can take Real at better odds. Or you can take Real ML @ 1.5-1.55 in double with other outcome you like.

I think we should bet on under due the several reasons. Maccabi changed their style a lot. They are possession-minded team (just 139 attacks at home this season) with defensive aproach. Their offense not good enough for Euroleague and often struggles under defensive pressure. And Real showed great defense on the road against Efes (88:74) and Zalgiris (87:66). Of course, Real will push pace as they usually do with their game style, but seems that we still have very good mathematical chances for under 165 points. And also we have supporting trends: Maccabi 3-0 for Under at home, Real 2-0 for under on the road (and 4-1 in the season).

According to current stats Maccabi should score 64-70 points and Real from 70 to 90.

Expected pace: 146 attacks
Home avg. scoring: 0.97-1.09 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.11-1.14 pts/attack

 

 Milan – Zalgiris

Pick:

Zalgiris +4.5 @ 1.5 5/10 WON

 BC Zalgiris

Dee Bost will take his Euroleague debut in Zalgiris and this is huge improvement for outside rotation, because Jasikevicius wants to see Dee Bost and Micic on PG and K.Pangos as SG. That will deliver huge defensive pressure on opponent point guards and ability to have Pangos and one defensive guard for more minutes. But of course, Dee Bost needs some time to get form.

Milan signed Jerrels from Hapoel, but he is not available yet. Micov got elbow injury, but seems to be fit to participate in a game.

There is no value in -4.5 spread, because teams are same level. But there is huge trend we should follow until it stops working. Zalgiris is 16-2 ATS on the road (13-2 from last season and 3-0 this year) and they had won in 2 of last 3 visits to Milan. Also at the moment Zalgiris looks to be in better conditions as a team, because this is their 3rd season under Jasikevicius, while Milan is at the beginning of their long road with Simone Piangiani.

Close game expected by me here. Zalgiris +4.5 as “strong underdog” system bet – is my advice here.

 

 Barcelona – Anadolu Efes

Pick

Under 162,5 @ 1.92 5/10

LOST

 
 

FC Barcelona will try to recover their 2-3 record against Efes, which is at the bottom of the table with 0 wins. Barcelona showed great defense against Olympiacos last week (73:51) and before they had good second half against Panathinaikos (98:71). There was one defensive fail against Zalgiris (75:81), but bad things happen.. I think that catalans starting to show signs of life in defense, but offensively they are not looking well enough on Euroleague level.Efes defense was destroyed by top offensive teams like CSKA (80:98) and Real Madrid (74:88), but in other games they were able to hold Valencia, Fenerbahce and Unicaja under 81 points. This Efes is playing in medium pace (141-146 attack per game), but it tends to increase average pace of opponent a little bit. Barcelona is an uptempo team (152 attacks per game), that likes to run fast offense. I expect about 152 to be done here, but there is good chance that one of the teams will collapse offensively.

According to my stats Barcelona should score 75-87 points and Efes 68-74 points. Also both teams has Under trends (Barca 2-1 at home and Efes 2-0 on the road).

 BC Khimki

 BC Khimki – Baskonia

Pick:

Under 159.5 @ 1.92 7/10

FREE PREVIEW

 

 

Baskonia traveled to Russia twithout Jordan McRae, who remained in Vitoria despite training with a group this week. Basques got their first win by coast-to-coast buzzer beater, but they still need time to find their game and inner balance. At the moment only 3 players (Beaubois, Shengelia and Granger) score points and playing well. And Martinez task is to involve Timma, Janning, Diop and Voigtmann into offensive schemes. I think that major problem for the team – questionable signings this summer. Garino, Huertas, Janning looks very bad so far and McRae trying to get his form back and can’t do it at least for now.

Khimki is much healthier team, but bookies and public gives too much respect to them. Because actually they are deep and balanced team of players, but they have too many average players to become a real power in Europe. Of course, Shved and Robinson has great numbers in offense.. But every coach knows that Shved is weak defender and can shoot 4/15 at any given moment and Robinson is just a good rebounder with bad shooting skills. Such small things makes difference, especially in situations when everybody expect Khimki to cover spreads. They are 1-4 against the spread this season and has covered as underdogs in Madrid. However, at home they were just 1, 2 and 3,5 points below handicap line and won all games.

Baskonia has enough talent inside and at its best form can win. But they are very far away from that conditions. Will they be able to fight for handicap? I think, yes. They are improving, hungry for points and Khimki are 0-3 ATS at home. But I feel that is a kind of bookies trap. They want to see some action on Baskonia spread, because Khimki might kill them at home court with their defense and offense. So I decided to skip handicap and choose total here.

Another bet we need to consider here – under 159,5. Below you can see team stats, that explain why it’s good position. Baskonia has very slow pace in Euroleague. And after Martinez arrival they did 141 attacks against PAO and 132 attack in Malaga. Khimki had several slow paced games (under 145 attacks) in VTB league and against CZ in Euroleague. Seems they are absolutely ok to play possesioned minded basketball, if opponent want this.

Home avg. scoring: 1.01-1.09 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.05-1.12 pts/attack
Expected pace: 142 attacks
Expected total range: 146-157 points

Trend:

Baskonia 3-0 for Under on the road

 

 Brose – Fenerbahce

Pick:

Under 152.5 @ 1.92 5/10

WON

 

Ali Muhammed is back for Fenerbahce. Good news for Obradovic, because he needs PG that can help Sloukas do distribute the ball in offense. Fenerbahce has failed to cover the spread in all 3 road games, but they played good and wasted lead in each of the games. Now they travel to Bamberg and I see them clear favs there, despite their 1-2 away record. They are different class team and must prove it in Germany, where Turkish clubs often gets additional support from the stands in Germany. Sometimes, it is hard to understand who plays at home.

As for the total I see good chances for under here, иut a lower stake should be used because of insufficient value over the line. Fenerbahce is slowest Euroleague team (just 129 attacks on the road) and meets Brose that is playing slow-medium pace (140-145 attacks per game). Fenerbahce defensive pressure should hold Brose around 70 points, Fenerbahce expected range around 74-80 points.

Home avg. scoring: 1.05-1.15 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.05-1.19 pts/attack
Expected pace: 134 attacks
Expected total range: 141-157 points

Trends:

Brose 2-0 for Under at home
Fenerbahce 2-1 for under on the road

Pick: Under 152,5 @ 1.95 5/10

 

 Olympiacos – Panathinaikos

Opening line

-4/144.5

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Spanoulis still absent for Olympiacos, but team used to play without him. Derby against Panathinaikos usually low-scoring battle, but that is already included into the line. 145.5 total could easily be overscored in case of normal shooting percentage, because last time when teams met this season game pace was 140 attacks (and the score was 71:68 PAO won). I don’t like to predict game like this, because it’s absolute unpredictable game. It might be 56:52 or 78:82 and you just can’t predict, which team to bet.

 Unicaja

 Unicaja – Crvena Zvezda

Opening line

-6.5/153

FREE PREVIEW

 Crvena Zvezda

Pero Antic did not make a trip to Malaga due the injury, so CZ rotation will be short. Actually, CZ coach doesn’t care a lot about result and give solid minutes to young players, who are not yet ready to play at this level. This is only option to grow new talents. Malaga must win this game to improve their table position and not to lose opponents against bottom team at home. Everyone is health for J.Plaza.

Malaga is not a top team of course, but their bench quality is much better and that should help to win this match. Difference is not so important here, but Unicaja like to win by double digit margins against weak opponent, so I think we should not trust too much CZ here.

Total has no value. I expect something like 83-72 at the end.

 

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