Brose – CSKA

Darius Miller (Brose Baskets)Brose Baskets should be very motivated tonight against Euroleague champs, but will they be able to compete for all 40 minutes? 

Andrea Thrinichieri was very angry after lost game in Kaunas in talked with his team around 30 minutes in Brose locker room. This game has top-importance for Brose, if they want to fight for something in Euroleague. I’m sure they will do their best to get a win. But they are 0-4 against the spread in home games and clearly shows how overestimated this team is after last season, when they were getting plus points at home. But last year they had Wannamaker, his replacement Causseur is not even far to him. Veremeenko was cut from the roster, while Radosevic can’t return to his level. They definitely need top-class player to start winning games.

Side betting

But this is the first time when Brose gets 6,5 points handicap at home and maybe this is a perfect time to hold it, because underdog status suits them much better. Anyway bookmakers set handicap quite correctly, because CSKA won against better teams (Efes and Oly) by 6 points and lost to Darussafaka. Brose is weaker side, so normally we should see -8,5 handicap and only -6,5 is in the offer.

I think it is worth taking something like Brose first to reach 20 points @ 2.40 at Bet365. At the start german side should be well prepared and motivated on both ends of the floor, while CSKA without De Colo might dive into problems in first half (this happened last season in both their outings to Bamberg). I take it as value bet.

As for game handicap CSKA should find a winning way with their perimeter defense. But -6.5 looks more or less fair, because if CSKA wins it does it usually with 5+ points margin.

Over or Under

  • Home avg. pace: 141 attacks
    Home avg. scoring: 1.18 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 157 attacks
    Away avg. scoring: 1.12 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 150 attacks

Brose is 4-0 Over/Under at home, CSKA 3-1 for Over away. Game should be a little bit higher than Brose used to play. Both teams has very good offensive numbers, but defensively they are looking too soft (especially Brose). Last season both games ended with overs (93:81 and 88:100). I doubt that Brose will be able to stop CSKA from scoring 90 points, while Brose should score 79-88 points.

Prediction

Brose 84 – 92 CSKA

Pick: Over 170 @ 1.94 Pinnacle*

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