Brose Baskets – Olympiacos

PrintezisEveryone in Europe knows how important is this game for Olympiacos. But is there any value to back them at such price?

Here we might see another interesting situation, when bookies show us their opinion about the game. Brose gets +4,5 line after their victory in Greece, where they were listed as 8 points underdogs. Normally we should see them as -1 favorites or at least close to pk line, but bookies killed an opportunity to take Olympiacos at pk line in such game. Everyone wants to take Olympiaco in this situation, but don’t forget that Brose was looking solid against CSKA, Barcelona and Real Madrid in home games. Why they should lose this game without fight?

On top of that Olympiacos has Strawberry questionable for this game and Odom was not able to train due the virus infection (but should be ok for the game). Olympiacos that this must win game for them and will use all their experience to grab two points in Bamberg. The only issue I don’t like here is the price… Why I should trust Olympiacos against Brose Baskets, which is 7-1 against the spread at home?! If line would be around 1.90-1.90 maybe I would risk half unit here, but definetely not at 1.68..

So we have here overestimated chances for Olympiacos and tiny value on over (my line here is 149.5 points). If line would be normal Brose total would be ~75 points. But because line has been affected by bookies & public we get some value on Bamberg team.

Brose scored 72+ in all home games (83.25 on average). Olympiacos allowing 76.8 pts/away game and got 72+ points in 7/10 outing this season. Their defense is not that good in away games as at home and despite everyone including bookies thinks and expects Oly to win this cruical game in Bamberg, I still see good statistical chances for germans to score 72+ points.

Pick: Brose over 71,5 @ 1.85 Favbet

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