CSKA – Crvena Zvezda

Zirbes (Crvena Zvezda)CSKA can’t cover the spread in last 5 home games. Market overestimate them by an average of 4 points and today they will meet Crvena Zvezda, which is 8-3 against the spread in last 11 away games in Euroleague? What side to choose tonight?

Crvena Zvezda showed solid game in Game 1 offensively. 8 players scored 5+ points, but I think we can expect more from Zirbes (6 points) and defensively CZ might add more agressiveness in defending their paint. CSKA finished with 72.7% from 2 pts zone and that definetely too much. Game 1 was one by Teodosic performance (23 points and 8/10 shooting from all distance), but De Colo was switched off and I expect Crvena Zvezda to improve a little bit, because their offensive quality was not high and defensively they were not looking ideal.

CSKA allowed 15 offensive rebounds, but I doubt that I can improve in that area a lot without Freeland. They never were good rebounding team, while CZ always was one of the best in offensive rebounds. Sure De Colo might explode today, but I think that Teodosic can’t repeat same level. Other CSKA players are nothing special and almost at the same level as CZ players.

I expect another tough game for CSKA. Game 1 showed that CZ is in good conditions and there is no reason to put CSKA as -16 favs.

Prediction: CSKA 87 – 76 Crvena Zvezda

Pick: Crvena Zvezda +16.5 @ 1.95 Pinnacle

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