CSKA is still without J.Freeland and V.Khriapa, while Crvena Zvezda has recovered L.Mitrovic in their last game vs. Cedevita. However, M.Guduric stayed in Belgrade due the virus infection.Moscow team is best offensive team in competition and Crvena Zvezda task is try to stop that flowing offense. Serbian team has athletic and strong defenders and that’s why Crvena Zvezda success is based on defense. During the 2015/16 season they allowed more than 91 points just once. And that happen in Madrid, when they traveled with many players absent and totaly different team, than now.
CSKA has deep roster and will try to use their strong sides in this series. CZ is doing 15 turnovers/game (1st team in competition) and I think that Itoudis will try to press CZ guards to get more possessions and score easy points from fast breaks. Also Zvezda is currently playing only in Euroleague and their last games here were walkovers… The only game which was important (against Darussafaka) was surprisingly lost. So there is good chance that CZ form at the the moment is far from the best, while CSKA is doing well in all competitions.
I think that healthy line (if both at best and at current roster) should be -14.5, but in today situation there are too many speculations about team form, so maybe bookies are right with their decision to move line to -17.5.
I expect to see CSKA scoring 86-92 points, while CZ according to my system should score ~75. So all depends on CZ defense. If they will find the way how to stop CSKA offense than +17.5 should be easy cover. But if they will lose balls and CSKA will score their 92+ points than it easily can be 20+ win for CSKA Moscow.
M.Teodosic over 16,5 @ 1.85 3/10
In Top-16 Milos doing 17.5 posessions per game, while in regular season he did just 14. He always take many possessions, but sometimes fail to shoot with good percentage. But at this line we need just his normal or close to normal percentage. I’ve expected 18+ pts line for him tonight. For example, De Colo who is doing 18.5 posessions/game gets 19.5 pts line, but he need to show brilliant shooting percentage to cover that line.
Prediction: 89 – 74 CSKA
Pick: M.Teodosic over 16.5 @ 1.85 Favbet