CSKA – Milan

Aaron Jackson (CSKA)Milan travels to Moscow with desire to continue playing like they did in their recent games against Fenerbahce and Cantu.

The key point here is that I expect best Euroleague offense to explode against weakest away defense.
All players are healthy for CSKA and after 3 lost games in a row, they should be concentrated and well motivated to prove their level in front of own spectactors. Maybe CSKA coach will do less experiments with his roster today or will do another one, which will bring so needed result. Also Milos Teodosic and Nando De Colo should rise their level of game after they did 26 turnovers in 3 lost games.
Milan away from home allowing 83-90 points in games with 144-150 were done. In Moscow all games are playing at fast pace and looking back to the their meeting in Milan (where they did 157 attacks, but failed to score points finishing 64:79) we should expect nothing else than fast game.
Sanders is still out for J.Repesa, but seems that without him team playing more collective basketball and it brings better result.
For 155+ attacks game stats point to  172-180 points and also we have 2 strong trends to follow:

  • Milan is 6-2 for Over/Under away
  • CSKA is 5-2 for Over/Under at home
  • Home avg. pace: 152 attacks (+)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,14-1,15 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 148 attacks (+)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.11-1,13 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 156 attacks

 CSKA should win this game quite easily, by scoring 92-100 points. Milan should use CSKA defensive weakness and score 79-85. As for me 176.5-178 total line would be more correct here.
Prediction: CSKA 96 – 82 Milan
Pick: Over 171.5 @ 1.90 Pinnacle *
* Odds & Line at the moment of paid subscription release.
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