Euroleague Top-16. CSKA – Regal Barcelona

Milos TeodosicNando De Colo and Joel Freeland questionable today for CSKA. Both are important players, but seems that both are more likely like game-time decision than out. Anyway another important new about this game is that it will be played in “Megasport” arena. This is not usual for CSKA to play here, but Euroleague wants to see big attendance on its matches.

Usually switch to new arena results in underish games, because it takes time to addopt to new rims and big space around the floor.

Barcelona is in difficult moment of the season. They are between flights to Canary Islands (played against Tenerife and upcoming game in Gran Canaria), than next week they travel to Madrid to meet Real and than hosts Valencia at home. Very difficult schedule, but this game should be a milestone here, because with a win they can relax a little bit in Madrid. Anyway big game for Barca and I expect them to show their best attitude tonight.

I can’t understand why market goes to over here. CSKA is a offensive power, but Barca is a team, which is forcing their opponents to play slow-paced basketball. CSKA usually do the same, but their huge percentages sometimes hides the real pace of the game. This time CSKA plays on neutral ground for them, nobody knows aboud De Colo and we should not forget that A.Jackson is out too, so only Teodosic left on PG position. There are so many reason to expect lower score than usual, that I decided to go with under here.

Another point I do like here – Barcelona handicap. They have healthy roster and +6.5 is few points more than I expected to see. This is not enough to take as value bet, but is ok for system selection, because Barca is on 0-3 strike against the spread in the away games. Anyway I see much closer battle, which may resul in narrow CSKA win by 3-6 points in the end.

Pick: Under 166 @ 1.92 Pinnacle
Pick: Barcelona +6.5 @ 1.92 4/10 (system selection)

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This article has 1 Comment

  1. I also advice to take Teodosic over 16.5 pts @ 1.85.

    He again started to take more shots after some relax in the end of regular season. In last 2 games took ~20 possessions and he scores 1.01 pts/poss. on average (and might improve easily here with 3-points shooting). If De Colo out he will get 32+ minutes and many shots. Should cover!

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