Zalgiris traveled to Moscow with full roster (of course without Javtokas and Lipkevicius) and ambition to show different face, that was shown in Kaunas few weeks ago (59:94). The problem is that nobody can predict what version of Zalgiris we will see tonight. At its best version they can win in Barcelona and fight like lions against Real Madrid but when things become worse they lose by 35 points to CSKA or 33 to Khimki… Today Zalgiris will play without pressure and soft CSKA defense should suit their offense better, than Olympiacos or Kutxa Laboral defenses, when Zalgiris was closed under 70 points.
CSKA doesn’t care about defense, because their offense can score 90+ points each given day and nobody can outplay them there. But today they have 2 big players out (Freeland and Khriapa) and that may cause even more defensive problems, because CSKA doesn’t have defensive players in its frontline. It will be difficult to defend in paint with Korobkov, Lazarev and Hines. Jankunas, Vouyokuas can have a good offensive performance today.
My numbers are saying that Zalgiris should get around 85-86 posessions today and score 74-81 points. CSKA with De Codo, Teodosic should score even more, but I am not sure about scoring more than 94 points.. I see this game much more competitive than line suggests.
Prediction: CSKA 91 – 78 Zalgiris
Pick: Zalgiris over 74.5 @ 1.92 Pinnacle
Pick: Zalgiris +20 @ 1.95 Pinnacle
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