We have quite interesting today in Euroleague and I hope that it will deliver us some winners. One pick and 2 games previews available today in free edition.
Limoges – Olympiacos
It’s hard to predict how well Limoges offense will be against Olympiacos defense. But Olympiacos offense should have easy evening tonight due the some obvious reasons.
1. Limoges at home allowed 89 pts from Efes, 107 from Laboral, 78 from Cedevita. In each of those games opponents improved their average scoring efficiency. Olympiacos so far have 0.9 pts/poss. in average but they played in Vittoria, Milan, Istanbul and Zagreb against very good defensive teams. So today I expect them to improve their scoring and they should score 1.02-1.07 pts/poss and they will get ~80 possessions. So we might expect them finishing with 80+ points.
2. Limoges has home game on Saturday in French league, where they need to improve rankings. This game is not important for them, so we might expect relaxed game in defense and offense. Olympiacos also should not press them defensively.
68:85 my call here.
Pick: Olympiacos over 77 or over 144,5 @ 1.90 Pinnacle
Pinar Karsiyaka – Lokomotiv Krasnodar
Karsiyaka almost lost their chances (because PAO should win over Zeliona Gora tomorrow). They also cut Ragland and become even more shorter team. They have just 3-4 players of Euroleague level and Gonlum, Sipahi and Josh Carter who are Eurocup level players. Despite this team is quite strong at home it will be very hard to compete for them against best version of Krasnodar, which is going to play without A.Randolph again (but without him they were much better team).
Lokomotiv lost their last 2 games to Zeliona Gora and Khimki and are very motivated to end this losing streak. But that’s not going to be easy. They played on Monday in Khimki (lost in 2 overtimes) and had just 2 days to recover & prepare for the game + travel. But biggest problem is their physical conditions. They are looking tired and less concentrated on both ends of the floor in last games, but sure they can improve at any given moment.
I see Loko as better team here, but I don’t think that we have enough value here to take their handicap. As for the total line is very close to fair. Loko has 4th best away defense in Euroleague by average points allowed (73.0), but they are just 13th by defensive quality with 0.94 pts/possession.
Maccabi – Brose Baskets
I don’t like how Maccabi playing this year. Coach changes did not help them becauce J.Tabak is poor coach without team building experience. Maccabi needs some kind of miracle to enter Top-16, but they still must win game to stay in this run. Farmar and Smith should be back for this game, so Maccabi almost with full roster. Only Ofuebu is injured and will miss 3 or 4 weeks.
Brose Basket is definetely better team if we talk about basketball as a game. But Maccabi will do its best to get their chance of qualification. I am not 100% that Brose is interested in 2nd place (and giving their best tonight) because they have important clash with ALBA in Berlin this weekend. Maybe Maccabi motivation will be deciding factor here. I prefer to skip this one.
Paid picks & previews
- Efes Pilsen – Kutxa Laboral
- Barcelona – Zalgiris
- Sassari – Unicaja