Euroleague. December 4 games previews & Picks

lokobasketWe have many interesting games to watch this evening. However, most of them are with correct lines. One free pick tonight available for general public. 

Lokomotiv – Zeliona Gora

Zeliona Gora travels to Krasnodar without Moldoveanu, J.R.Reynolds and big doubt is about participation of Bost, who got injured on Monday. Polish champs will definetely miss scorers in this game and I hardly see them playing well against very agressive Loko defense, which they impose in home games.

Lokomotiv is playing very agressive basketball these days and now they got another offensive option. A.Randolph is back to the roster and played 12-15 minutes in his first game since return. Loko has 10-man rotation and will use this advantage in today’s game for sure.

We had -6 on Loko in Poland what transmits to -15 line in Russia be default. But here we have much weaker version of Zeliona Gora and best available version of Loko. So for me -15.5 spread is wrong one, but I am not sure about Loko motivation in second half. They have important game against Khimki, which kicked off them in VTB league playoffs last year, so I expect Loko to decide this game from the beginning. I see them dominating in first half, while Zeliona Gora will try to play slow pace to avoid blow out. 41:28 is my call for HT.

Pick: Lokomotiv HT (-9) @ 1.91 Pinnacle

Strasbourg – Bayern

Bayern used game vs. Carlsheim to shape their defense. They were very agressive them and I think that they should be agressive in Strasbourg too. I would pick Bayern if odds on them would be over 2.00, but right now bookies set estimation very well. Bayern without question MUCH better team, than Strasbourg, but they deserve -2.5 or -3 in France not higher. I am not taking such bets, because it is more like a form of gambling, than investing when you see that odds set right and pick something from there.

Take Bayern on nothing here. 

Panathinaikos – Barcelona

The same story as in Strasbourg. Barcelona is MUCH better, deeper and stronger team than PAO, but is there any sense to take them @ 1.75 in Greece? I absolutely agree with point, that Barca is favorite here and should prove this on court. But the problem is with odds… Maybe Barca deserves -4 here, but 1.5 points is just too low odds to take Barca here. We should not forget, that PAO now has full roster and their talent should not be disrespected. If Barcelona would priced would be priced with odds 1.95+ – that would be pick for sure. At such odds we should wait for in-play opportunity to take Barca with better odds.

Take Barcelona or nothing here

Paid picks & previews

  • Darussafaka – Unicaja
  • Crvena Zvezda – Khimki
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