Euroleague Picks for December 20

Marko SimonovicFree previews for games in Kazan, Pireus and Madrid. 

Unics – Galatasaray

  • Home avg. pace: 141 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,12 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 150 attacks (+)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.06 pts/attack

Galatasaray without Dentmon, Russ and now Thompson. But all three players were not desired by head coach. Club is looking for replacements on the market, but they still have well looking roster. Market heavily understimates Galatasaray depth and quality. This is a main reason why they are 4-1 against the spread in last 5 games. And they travels as 6.5 pts dogs to Kazan, which has covered the spread just once in 6 games. Basing on trends Galatasaray might be a good choice for handicap betting. But I always try to look for value to support trends. And I can’t see it here. Unics offense is very good looking, Galatasay defense is quite sloppy and if they afford Unics offense to create a show, than this could go to easy double digits Unics victory. Don’t forget, that Galatasaray has not won away this season and lost their games by 6, 9, 12, 7 and 17 points.

I think that market is fair here. If Galatasaray will create early lead it is worth to consider taking Unics ML at 1.90+.

Prediction: Unics 85 – 76 Galatasaray

Efes – Zalgiris

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Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda

  • Home avg. pace: 152 attacks (+)
  • Home avg. scoring: 0,98 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 149 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1,053 pts/attack

Printezis and Hackett ruled out for Olympiacos. V.Spanoulis is major doubt with knee pain. Crvena Zvezda comes with full roster.

Olympiacos and Crvena Zvezda are friendly clubs (played friendly before season, last season was special welcome action for CZ fans and so on). I think this match can be a kind of fixed. Anyway without 3 starting important players it should be really hard to win by double digits. Crvena Zvezda has returned their focus to Euroleague last week after beating Maccabi and will try to attack Olympiacos in Greece. Last year they had a close there (59:64) and now they have better rotation and players at disposal.

I expect close game with some chances for away win here.

Prediction:  Olympiacos 78 – 74 Crvena Zvezda

Pick: Crvena Zvezda +9 @ 1.93 Pinnacle

Real Madrid – Brose Baskets

  • Home avg. pace: 154 attacks (+)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1.129 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 141 attacks (-)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1,05-1.085 pts/attack

Can’t agree with move to the over side from 166.5 to 168 points. Brose is a slow team, which force opponents to play slower basketball. I expect 146-150 attacks to be done in Madrid today and with normal shooting percentage it should lead to 158-174 points range. With Brose being 6/6 under 168 points in away games – I think bookies did right estimation, when they decided to set line at 166 line.

It’s hard to go against home record (4/6 for Over 168 points), but this game could be a perfect one for in-play betting in case of high-scoring 1st half. Game pace should drop in 2nd half and if line at HT will be 174 points and higher – take under.

Prediction: Real Madrid 84 – 78 Brose Baskets

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