Olympiacos – Efes Pilsen
My line: (-6.5/152.5)
Greek took control over the Game 1 at the middle of first quarter and never let Efes to make a comeback. Actually you can’t do comeback if you can’t score against opponent defense and close own basket.
In Game 2 it’s hard to expect anything else than Olympiacos victory. But at current odds there is no value either in handicap or total line. Both are set really well and we can only gamble with coin flips, how game will develop.
There is no much difference in roster quality, but Olympiacos system is looking much stable and ready for playoffs, than Efes.
Real Madrid – Darussafaka
My line: (-12/161)
- Expected pace: 145 attacks
- Home avg. scoring: 1,07-1,15 pts/attack
- Away avg. scoring: 1.09-1,19 pts/attack
- Expected total: 156-167 points
On Wednesday Real Madrid did second-half comeback from “-11” and won 83:75. Today Pablo Lasso wants to see more intensity from first minutes. Not sure if that will work, because Darussafaka playing one-on-one basketball offensively and main dangers comes from perimeter players, where Real has deficit of defensive-minded players. Lasso can’t risk too much with Maciulis and Draper (his best defenders), because they can’t produce points in offense. And it’s definitely hard to win easily, when only 2 players scores 10+ points (Lull and Ayon). Real showed solid offensive quality with 8/15 from 3-points and just 10 turnovers, but had troubles finish from 2 points distance (20/41).
Darussafaka had a good game, but their players are yet to get that Euroleague playoff experience to learn how to win games there. Except, Slaughter nobody played at this stage, so no surprise that they are losing those double digits leads.
I expect Real to have a little better offensive efficiency today. I plan 83-89 points for them, and Darussafaka should have about 75 points again. Game is wide open regarding handicap.
Due the low pace (143 attacks in Game 1) total again have good chances for Under, but value is not enough to grab it before the game.
Advice: Wait for 168+ line to take UNDER (in case of low pace)