Baskonia had week to prepare for this game. Bargnani still low, but Sito Alonso and his team doing well without him. At the moment Baskonia owns 5-1 home record and they are 3-1 ATS in last home games. Barcelona are looking very weak in away games with just 2 wins in 7 matches. On top of this they are just 2-5 ATS and on 0-4 run against the spread.
Healthy line here should be -1.5 for Baskonia (there were 8.5 dogs in their only visit to Barcelona this season). They are not better team by names, but they play much better basketball at the moment and stats prove this. Bookmakers again doing a trick here by setting them as -4 favorites to welcome some money on all-mighty Barcelona. But current teams ATS form clear states that Baskonia is the only possible selection here. Their defense, offensive performance, home crowd support, ATS form – everything talks to Baskonia favor here. They are clear favorites to win this match. But we should accept risk of closing eyes on Barcelona potential. Catalans are very good team and on good day they can beat anyone anywhere.. but there are not good days so far for Bartzokas.
- Home avg. pace: 146 attacks (+)
- Home avg. scoring: 1,013 pts/attack
- Away average pace: 138 attacks (-)
- Away avg. scoring: 1.007 pts/attack
As for the total above mentioned stats lead to easy under here (136-143 pts expected total), if pace will be around 138-140 posessions. The problem is that Baskonia normally is uptempo team and their first game in Barcelona had 150 attacks pace. If that one will be repeated today (what usually happens) 153.5 pts line looks very close to the fair one. So I decided to skip this selection.
Pick: Baskonia (-3.5) @ 1.92