Euroleague Betting Analysis for November 11th

CSKA Basketball teamYesterday we had perfect 3-0 day, but today lines are very strong with no big value, but with some positions to consider at in-play. Let’s looks closer. 

CSKA – Real Madrid

  • Home avg. pace: 152 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,134-1,15 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 156 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.106-1,167 pts/attack

Two best European teams meets in Moscow this evening. Both coaches have full rosters, but I think that motivation is different. For russians Euroleague at the moment is the only competition they are taking seriously, while Real is playing in Spanish league, where you can’t take games as easy as CSKA take VTB league games. Real is not playing like a powerhouse. They lost to Baskonia at home, they had difficulties with Maccabi and Galatasaray in recent weeks. Also their second aunit players (Maciulius, Draper, Reyes, Taylor, Thompkins) looks very weak and it will be hard to compete against powerful CSKA bench, with Teodosic, Fridzon, Higgins and Augustine coming out from there.

CSKA playing best basketball in Europe right now and there is no area, where Real can match up against them. CSKA is better everywhere and they should prove this on court by covering spread.

Also I think that we have good opportunity to see high-scoring basketball today. The problem is with line, which expects the same. 177 total line for european basketball is high enough. Last season games between CSKA and Real had 156 attacks. At this pace it’s hard to expect 180+ points with current scoring quality. 172-182 range looks ok statistically, and I think that it’s better to wait 165-170 line during first half to take over.

Leans: CSKA (-6,5), over 177 (both better to follow live)

Galatasaray – Olympiacos

  • Home avg. pace: 153 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,20 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 150 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.086-1,132 pts/attack

Galatasaray (0-5) welcomes Olympiacos (3-2) at home and will try to earn their first victory in Euroleague. But Olympiacos looks too difficult opponent to achieve this goal. Olympiacos can’t take this game easily. After home loss to CSKA they need to take away win, because next week they have 2 back to back games with Barcelona (at home) and Panathinaikos (away). They must win in Turkey to enter that double trap with good mood and table position.

Turkish coach not satisfied with his PG (Dentmon and Russ). Offensively they are failing to score and make plays for teammates, defensively they are weak too (due the low height – 1.83 cm). Eric Green (1.90) and V.Spanoulis (1.93) should have easy life tonight in offense. Olympiacos defense also should be a huge problem for Galatasaray.

I expect Olympiacos to win, but handicap is close to fair.

Baskonia – Fenerbahce

  • Home avg. pace: 151 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,08-1.19 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 138 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.118-1,21 pts/attack

This is going to be first real test for Fenerbahce this season. So far they played against Brose, Zalgiris and Unics at home and unbalanced Barcelona, weak Galatasaray away.. Their loss to Unics last week might a be a first sign of crisis. Their bench is not deep this season (but full of quality) and Bogdanovic injury is still not compensated.

Baskonia had more difficult schedule and earned 3-2 winning record with losses to Olympiacos (home) and Zalgiris (away). Bargnani should return to the field. Cooney contract was terminated and seems that Okognon days in Baskonia are over after Beaubois recovery. Budinger is another bench improvement for Baskonia and they looks like a complete team right now.

Fenerbahce is public side here, but I think it’s better to stay away from betting on them here. Baskonia at home is always hard and Fenerbahce should give an answer about their true potential this season.

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