Euroleague. December 17 picks & previews

shvedLast round of regular season awaits us on basketball courts in Europe and 3 previews and 3 bet advices in free edition today. Good luck with your bets!

Khimki – Fenerbahce

This match will be played in Khimki arena (not in Moscow), so we can expect great atmosphere there. P.Davis looks to be out, despite he is training with a team. Fenerbahce is with full roster. Motivation is different here, because turkish has nothing to play for and Khimki will seek revenge and 2nd spot in a group.

Fenerbahce is better equipped team here and normally we should see 1.90-1.90 line here (if Davis is out), but different motivation is a key factor here. As for the total we I expect high-scoring game. Fenerbahce feeling quite well in offense in last 2-3 weeks and should accept Khimki pace, which is one of the highest in Europe, especially in home games. I doubt that Ulker will play 100% concentrated on defensive end. First game in Istanbul ended 88:83, but russians mande just 6/30 from distance and 17/27 from FT.

I like over chances here, but I think it’s better to wait for in-play market here, because all my numbers indicates that boomakers set line higher than it should be normally. 

If you can bet players than consider taking Shved over 15.5 and Kopponen over 9.5. Khimki playing with small five in last games and these two get extended time + more shots. I would give 19.5 for A.Shved and 11.5 for Kopponen.

Zalgiris – Panathinaikos

Zalgiris is playing their best basketball right now and that should be expected after slow start (due the fatique after Eurobasket). Their last games against Karsiyaka and especially Barcelona were played on absolutely different level of energy and I expect them to continue improve their level of game tonight in front of packed Zalgirio arena. Zalgiris task is quite easy here. They must do what they like and learn – defend against poor PAO offense, which struggles very often this season.

Both teams in full roster, but PAO played on Monday very difficult game at home against PAOK (70:69). A.Djordjevic was not satisfied with his team and players attitude to the game. Sure he wants to see reaction from players, but as I said before seems that atmosphere inside the team is far from best.

I still rate PAO as better team, but go here with in-form team, which takes this game very seriously and is better prepared. As for me 2.05 is very good price to take Zalgiris.

Pick: Zalgiris to win @ 1.99 Pinnacle

Brose – Sassari

Sassari travels to Germany without injured B.Petway and according to italian sources D.Logan is going to miss this game too due the problem with knee. Brose coach already announced that he plans to use extended rotation in this game.

Italian team this year tends to play slower basketball than before and after coach change improved their defense dramatically. This game will be used again to tighten their defensive schemes (at least players and coach talking about this). In Italy Brose won 90:73, but germans scored 12/20 from distance and added 22/34 from paint.

I like chances for under here, but value is not so high, considering that this game has no meaning for both teams.

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