Teams knows each other pretty well, because played in regular season two times. In both games Khimki was better team and won 84:70 at home and 85:82 in Madrid. Both times game pace was high (172 and 182 posessions, 150 and 156 attacks) and I expect another high-paced games today. However, I see slight value on under here due the defensive attitude of Khimki, which is 7-2 for Under at home and Real often fails this season against defensive pressure. The problem here is that we can’t trust Real defense. With Maciulis and Ndour being able to play and Reyes out (offensive solution) – we can expect some improvement from Real in that area.
Also I think Khimki potential is a bit overestimated now. They were +1.5 dogs at home in first game, than +6.5 and now gets -4. But in those games Khimki played with P.Davis. Today he is out (as well as his sub D.Sokolov) and he is very important player for them. However Real missings tonight also very important (Rudy & Reyes) so all in one Khimki are right home favorite, but I really can’t see value being on them.
My lean here is under 168.5, but I don’t like to go with official pick here, because at expected pace this bet is mostly on shooting percentage to be lower than normal. If it will be at average or higher than average level – it’s a gamble.
As for the side betting I don’t see any value in Khimki, despite I like the game style and brilliant form. But it’s always hard to dominate in all games against same quality team. Sooner or later Real will prove their class and experience. Small bet on Real victory @ 2.62 worth to consider.. I think there will be opportunity to hedge it during the game.
Paid picks & previews
- Crvena Zvezda – Cedevita
- Fenerbahce – Unicaja
- Laboral – Brose Baskets