Euroleague. November 12 picks

maccabi team 2015Today there are some very interesting games, but in free preview we will cover 2 games in Israel and Germany. 

Maccabi – Darussafaka

“Head coach Guy Goodes was sacked on Monday following a humbling BSL defeat to Maccabi Ashdod, which came on the back of a road loss in Germany to Brose Baskets Bamberg that saw the yellow-and-blue fall to 1-3 in the Euroleague regular season for the first time in 17 years. Avi Even, an assistant coach who worked as a scout until last season, will be guiding the team… “

Maccabi without coach, with poor atmosphere within the team, but still at home, where they must win all games, especially against same level team (and lower).. Very hard situation for hosts, but line is more or less on the same level, as I see it in my book.

Darussafaka is deep team, but they are still in building process and it can take much longer than expected. Aldemir Furkan and Scottie Wilbekin are going to debut today (both were registered and played in TBL), but two new players in rotation with questionable form and level (if we talking about Wilbekin).. Quite difficult puzzle to make clear picture and estimation before the game.

I see tiny value in Darussafaka here, but it is always to go against team, which changed coach (but part of Maccabi are not happy with this), and also against Maccabi at home with average team like Darussafaka is.

Maccabi problem this year – their defense. So far they are looking terrible here in both competitions. They give 83 possessions to opponents and gets 83.2 points from this, and this number includes their best defensive game against Sassari. In other games they allows 0.91-1.11 pts/possesion. Darussafaka is full of players, who can score points at any given minute with Fulkar and Wilbekin they have 2 more scorers (but I am not sure about their defensive capabalities). Darussafaka tends to make less possesions, so I think they will do about 80 possesions and definetely have the ability to score 0.91+ pts per possession to Maccabi defense tonight. So I expect Darussafaka to score about 72-78 points tonight and it will depend on their defense, what side of handicap will win here.

Pick: Darussafaka over 72.5 @ 1.90 

Bayern – Crvena Zvezda

Bayern is 4-0 ATS at the moment, but it’s time to end this streak. First of all in my rating Crvena Zvezda is slightly better team than Strasbourg (and they proved it in Belgrade). They shakened their roster in last few weeks, but seems that now everything is fine inside the team and they continue their season. And here is an important moment. Last week Bayern got -6 against French team and now gets -12.5 against Crvena Zvezda??? Why? Because Crvena lost to Real Madrid and Bayern did a thriller there? Or because Crvena lost in Khimki and Bayern won against them at home? There were important reasons why Zvezda lost to Madrid and Khimki. Now they have fixed all those problems and there is no reason to make them worst team in this group.

On top of that, Crvena Zvezda like to play as outsider, without pressure and Bayern never was a team, wich felt comfortable to cover such spreads. Sure, Bayern has better players, but they don’t deserve such handicap line against young talented and now quite deep team.

Pick: Crvena Zvezda +11.5 @ 1.95

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