Big card today in Euroleague and there are at least 4 games, where I see chances for betting.
Unicaja – Maccabi
Almost a “must win” game for Maccabi and “another one” for Unicaja, which is almost qualified with 5-1 after 6 rounds. Unicaja today probably without M.Kuzminskas – their best and most effective player (problems with knee). I doubt that Plaza will risk him tonight in game which does not decide a lot. Unicaja is absolutely happy with loss by less than 11 points. They had difficult week with 2 losses and many travelling and seems that now they entered the phase of bad form. They were looking awful in Germany and not much better in Andorra. Now they host extra-motivated with new coach and full roster.
I still like Maccabi roster this season, but they failed to show their talent so far. In their last game they showed character and was looking much better, but CSKA is a top class team to beat them even at home. It was absolutely clear that Maccabi will do their bet on this game in Malaga. They must win it and take situation under control.
Without Kuzminskas I can’t see Unicaja on the same level with Maccabi. Yellow-blue team looks more talented to me and I expect them to use Unicaja’s complicated moment and take victory here. Sure, this is not a typical situation and value is not so great, but I think that fair line is much closer to 1.90-1.90 line.
Pick: Maccabi +5 @ 1.80 Pinnacle
Milan – Efes Pilsen
Milan has 0-6 against the spread record this season and normally we should go with Milan here as system selection. But I don’t see even minimal value on them, especially after news that A.Gentile is probably out for today. The reason why they fail to cover – is their level. They are too weak for Euroleague and that’s why they can’t cover the line. Breaking news came just few minutes ago, that A.Gentile is probably out for tonight and this is another huge blow for Milan.
Without him I can’t see Milan scoring in high numbers. First game in Turkey was played in low pace, but Efes scored 13/24 3-pointers, Milan added 8/18 + 25 points from fast break points. Dusan Ivkovic said that his team needs to avoid that tonight by controlling the pace. I think it is worth to try under here. By the way Efes has 6 overs in a row.. Good chance to end this streak.
Pick: Under 154 @ 1.93 Pinnacle
Zeliona Gora – Barcelona
Barcelona travel without Lawal and Navarro, but that’s not a big problem for them. We might expect more minutes from more effective scorers like Doelmann or Abrines. Barcelona should get about 82-83 posessions here and Zeliona Gora should do a defensive miracle to stop them under 0.95 points/possession. Barca had 6 away games this season in Spain and Euroleague and only 2 times finished under 1 pts./poss (against Pinar and this weekend against Laboral).
I expect Barcelona to score 78-83 points and Polish team should finish with 65-72 points.
- Khimki – Bayern
- Olympiacos – Laboral