Euroleague. November 5 picks

Vincent ColletBig day today in Euroleague. First time this season we have more than 3 bets, what gives me an opportunity to post 2 free picks. 

Khimki – Strasbourg

Khimki is 2-0 over the spread at home (against Real and Zvezda) and covered line by 13.5 points… Many bettors take them as top-level team, but for me they are definetely a playoff contender like Olympiacos, Efes Pilsen and Unicaja. Im normal situation Khimki should get -9 on neutral ground against Strasbourg and -13.5 at home. We should not forget that Khimki playing at neutral field too (but it’s only 20km away from Khimki).

Strasbourg is full of players with international experience. Sure, they don’t have top quality players but they are not that weak as Crvena Zvezda these days. They are almost full (only Duport not playing recently) and they are good defensively. 

Khimki gets too much respect from public at the moment. So far Khimki played against low-quality teams in VTB league and we should not take those results too seriously. When they met more or less good and ready for the season teams (CSKA, Bayern, Nizhny Novgorod) they lost or struggled (Avtodor). Strasbourg has enough skills to trouble Khimki here. Sure, russians are going to win here, but 15+ points handicap looks 3 points higher than it should be.

As for the total I agree with bookmakers and disagree with public, which takes over here. Strasbourg force teams to play slower basketball (Khimki likes to run), but I have doubts about high percentages here. I expect to see Strasbourg in 68-75 line and Khimki under 85.

Pick: Strasbourg +16 @ 1.88 Marathonbet 

Darussafaka – CSKA

I don’t like the way Darussafaka is running their offense. They use 24 seconds to prepare situaton for attack, but in most cases all finishes with one-on-one situation. Such game style kill pace (Sassari did only 75 possessions, Brose 83 and Unicaja 73) and their efficience in offense, because their talent is not at high level to score points with solid percentage.

CSKA playingsolid defense and today it should be even more tight, because Korobkov (weak defensive center) is out with knee injury. Playing away from home CSKA shows much better defensive attitude that at home, where they can score as much they want.

According to my calculations Darussafaka should get around 80 posessions, but I have strong doubts about their ability to score 0.90+ pts/poss. against CSKA. I expect to see Darussufaka in 67-72 points range, while CSKA should be able to score 82+ points.

Pick: Darussafaka under 74 @ 1.70 Pinnacle

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