Bad things happens but there is no time for crying. I went yesterday 0-5 with picks, but 2 of them were system picks (Maccabi and Milan) and 2 pitty losses with Darussafaka under 74.5 and Laboral under 159.5. If you watched games you know, how I felt yesterday evening. But this is new day and long road to go to overcome all these losses.
The most important thing in such moments is to avoid wrong and keep going with value or/and picks selection system. Unfortunately, today lines are very tought for betting and I decided to skip them all. But here are my thoughts on games. Maybe you will find something important for you in my analysis.
Zalgiris – Barcelona
Zalgiris arena is sold out today, so 15000 fans will support Lithuanian team. Seems that Zalgiris main players starting to gain form and this a good sign. The problem for Zalgiris is huge class difference and bad history against Barcelona (1-17 all time). Everyone wants to win this match, but that’s all about Barcelona attitude… If Barca will play as they did against Panathinaikos last week – they will get important win and with their starting loss to Karsyaka I expect them to be more concentrated, because they need to collect relatively easy away win to control situation in the group.
I see quite close game here, but I hardly see 50% for Zalgiris to win this match. So -5.5 looks too high, but in the end there is big chance to see Barca winning at these odds.
Lokomotiv – Karsiyaka
Line is fair here. Lokomotiv is better team at the moment, but not so good to get -9.5 handicap. Total market set right too.
Zeliona Gura – Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos is better team than Zalgiris and Lokomotiv and should get handicap about -6.5 points. They are not with full roster yet (Gist out, Jankovic in), but after two away losses will do their best to get first away win in Euroleague against weakest team in the group. But this game should be an easy walk for them.
Crvena Zvezda – Fenerbahce
Zirbes is questionable for hosts here and he is very important player for quite short and quality-less Crvena Zvezda. I don’t like Fenerbahce as title-contender after their win over Real Madrid and I am not type of person who overeacts to such win. Z.Obradovic has much more talent within his team, deeper bench and will use these factors here. But I see no value at these odds either in handicap or total.
Unicaja – Sassari
Unicaja played 2 slow games against Brose and Darussafaka. Sassari is much faster team and that’s why bookies give us 154 points line. Unicaja tends to run fast offense, but when they fails to score fast points they use 24sec clock till the end and attacks quite well. Sassari is uptempo temo and should give Unicaja much more possesions, but bookies knows this too.