Euroleague playoffs. April 19 games preview

DiamantidisI see only one bet for tonight games and it was already send to paid subscribers. Left games are very interesting, but it’s hard to find good value bets there. But I will share my thoughts about them. 

Panathinaikos – Laboral

Laboral comes to Greece with 3 players out. Hanga joined the list right before Game 2. Casseur and Shengelia are there for several weeks and months. But Hanga and Casseur traveled to Athens and officially not ruled out. Market already reacted to the news with move to -7, but seems that this is not just because of injuries. Because PAO performance in first two games was far below from required level and they need to improve a lot to cover the spread.  Actually they lost both games due the poor 3-points shooting (3/19 and 7/28). If they will improve in that area at home – than we can expect Game 5. The problem here is that PAO is just 17th team in competition in 3-point shooting and it’s obviously hard to expect big improvement in that area.

I think that PAO is going to win Game 3, but odds are too low to take them. If Hanga and/or Casseur are ok to play, than I would consider backing Laboral +7 as value bet. For now it is a skip position for me.

Barcelona – Lokomotiv

Xavier Pasqual has big doubts about J.Dorsey being able to play in this series, but with that game, which was shown in Game 2 it’s not a big problem. Barcelona will try to impose its offensive rhythm again, but Loko will do everything to avoid that. Pace in all games between these teams was slow and I don’t expect it to change tonight, but percentage may go up, because away from home Lokomotiv defense is less aggressive and Barca at home might be extra-effective.

If game pace will be the same as in Krasnodar 141-147 points is mathematical expected total here, so we can’t get any value in backing over/under here. As for outcome, I see no reason to back handicap side at these odds, but Barcelona should win both home games and finish the series. Loko has no defensive match-ups against Tomic, short bench and lacks winning mentality at this stage.

If you plan to watch this game I would recommend to take Barcelona over 76,5 pts.

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  • Real Madrid – Fenerbahce


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