Euroleague Playoffs. April 19 picks

Olympiacos – Efes Pilsen

Greek team will miss important Matt Lojeski, but s I said before they have deep bench and their system allow to overcome loss of 1 or 2 players quite easily. Olympiacos success story was always based on defense, but this season they need more defense than ever. Reason is their bad offense. They are scoring just 0.9 pts/possesion at home and this is worst result in Euroleague. Zalgiris is second worst offense with 0.92 pts/poss. Surprisingly, on the road Olympiacos attack basket much better (0.95 pts/poss.), but I think that happens due the defensive aproach of their home games. Olympiacos defenders leave too much energy defending their basket in Pireus and that cost them drop of percentage in offense. Also opponents have no other choice, than to play same agressive defense against them. On the road things are different.

Efes has 2 faces. Against uptempo and bad defensive teams they use their offensive weapons and play up-tempo style. But when they meet defensive minded team, they switch to defensive minded basketball. Actually they were on 6-3 Under trend before they visited Real Madrid in last round of regular season. Also their offense is just on 13th position by efficiency in away games. They struggle against defensive pressure, but still was able to score 80.6 points on average in road games due the high paces and weak defense from the opponents.

My numbers show that we should see average pace here, but defensive skills should shut down both team offenses. I expect to see Efes to score 63-68 points and 70-75 from Olympiacos. Regular season numbers favors to 140-156 points, but I base my prediction on mutual games, where they showed just 1.00 pts/attack efficiency in both matches.

Pick: under 152.5 @ 1.92 5/10

Real Madrid – Darussafaka

Home avg. pace: 150 attacks (+)
Home avg. scoring: 1.07-1,16 pts/attack

Away average pace: 143 attacks (-)
Away avg. scoring: 1.09-1.19 pts/attack

Expected pace: 146 attacks
Expected total range: 157-171 points

Not much to say here. Real Madrid is much better and deeper team, that should prove their advantage in both home games. The problem is experience of David Blatt, who likes such games as this one. He is great tactic, can change game style adopting to opponents. But still I can’t see a lot of chances for Darussafaka to survive in this series.

Total line is more or less correct with some value on the over, but Darussafaka has 8 overs in a row on the road and according to my system it’s better to skip over bets on them right now. Because under should come very soon. Actually their game pace is quite average and those overs comes mainly due the bad defense, which is allowing 85 points on the road. Darussafaka is often playing without true center and that makes their defensive game very soft.

Advice: Wait for opportunity to take UNDER 169+ line

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